498 FXUS61 KCLE 161204 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Cleveland OH 804 AM EDT Tue Apr 16 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the Plains will extend a warm front into the area today, which will linger through Wednesday. Meanwhile, the low pressure system will move east along the front on Wednesday and enter the Great Lakes region on Thursday. A secondary area of low pressure will develop over the southern Plains on Thursday and move through the Ohio Valley on Friday and linger into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Minor changes to the forecast this morning. Radar returns over the area are generally not reaching the ground as the low-levels remain fairly dry. More widespread showers will enter later today with the warm front. Temperatures are generally on track. Previous Discussion... A warm front located over northern Illinois this morning will continue to slide east today. Ahead of the front, clouds will increase and some scattered rain will move over the lake and perhaps impact some of the lakeshore areas but the front should lift north enough to keep most of the area dry. The main exception though will be far NE OH and NW PA as the warm front will remain south of the lake and will be the focus for rain development later today. So to put today's forecast simply, on the north side of the front, below normal temperatures and rain; on the south side of the front, above normal temperatures, mostly dry, and perhaps a peek of sunshine. Tonight, the front will remain draped along the lakeshore areas into NE OH/NW PA and northwest flow over the region will allow for scattered rain showers to persist over the forecast area. Opted for scattered/isolated coverage wording for the tonight period, as rain will be in the area but will be generally hit or miss so the chance of rain is lower. Temperatures will be near or above normal for the overnight period. The front lingers over the area on Wednesday and rain may still be in the area but the upper level ridge axis begins entering the region and will help push the front, and in turn rain, north of the area. Have slight chance to low chance PoPs for Wednesday as rain will be favored north of the area. Temperatures behind the front will be well above normal across the region with 70s likely to return to several locations. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The warm front and a few scattered showers will continue to lift north of our CWA Wednesday night. Two upper level troughs over the upper midwest and southern Great Plains will merge into a very deep and elongated trough Wednesday night into Thursday. This will result in an elongated surface low pressure system, moving through our forecast area Thursday night, with precipitation reaching the western portion of our CWA by 00Z Friday. A chance of thunder was added for Thursday night into Friday but I could see chances of thunder increasing in later updates. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... On Saturday, that deep upper level trough closes off over the Tennessee Valley and meanders it way north through the Ohio Valley before reverting back to an open wave as it propagates northeast through the northeastern CONUS on Sunday night. The resulting low pressure develops over the mid-atlantic and deepens as it propagates north to OH/PA on Saturday. There is some differences in exact low timing and track, but the general idea is there in all of the major global models. This will result in widespread precipitation Friday night into Saturday. Residual precipitation may be around on Sunday before another weak disturbance keeps PoPs over our area on Monday. The multiple rounds of rain may result in flooding issues this weekend. && .AVIATION /12Z Tuesday THROUGH Saturday/... A broken to overcast deck of 10 kft ceilings have entered the region. While there are some radar returns this morning, most of the area is dry and only a couple sprinkles are reaching the ground. The warm front will continue northeast today and will be the focus for rainfall will be in NW PA as the front gets hung up along Lake Erie. Have timed in rain later today for KERI with MVFR likely and perhaps some IFR late in the period. Behind the warm front, winds will pick up out of the south and gusts to 20-25 knots are possible. Ceilings may begin to fall late tonight with scattered showers in the region and have a vicinity shower for a couple of locations with the front with a mix of MVFR and IFR. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible into Wednesday, especially at KERI and KYNG. Non-VFR returns in showers and possible thunderstorms late Thursday and Friday. && .MARINE... Winds will remain rather calm tonight as high pressure builds in over southern Ohio Valley. Weak southerly winds will be present over the lake much of the day Tuesday. The boundary will stall just south of the lake will resulting in 10-15 knots easterly flow. The boundary finally lifts north of the lake late Wednesday and winds becoming southerly. Southerly winds will increase ahead of the next low pressure system and cold front on Thursday. Winds may approach 20 knots on the lake. Winds will be changeable for the end of the week into the weekend as an area of low pressure slowly moves across the lake. As the low pulls away on Sunday, the winds will become westerly. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Sefcovic NEAR TERM...Sefcovic SHORT TERM...Saunders LONG TERM...Saunders AVIATION...Sefcovic MARINE...Saunders