648 FXUS64 KMAF 160848 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 348 AM CDT Tue Apr 16 2019 .DISCUSSION... High clouds are on the increase across the area, due to southwesterly flow aloft ahead of an upper trough approaching the region. Southerly surface flow this morning will shift to the west/southwest by this afternoon, with downslope warming yielding another day of above normal temperatures as highs climb into the 80s for most, with lower to middle 90s possible through portions of the Pecos and Rio Grande Valleys. Further east across the far eastern Basin and Lower Trans Pecos, highs may top out in the upper 70s this afternoon. After a mild night tonight, the aforementioned upper trough will swing through New Mexico and into the Texas Panhandle on Wednesday. The accompanying Pacific front will quickly scour out low-level moisture from west to east, however, midlevel moisture could still be enough to result in isolated thunderstorms in closer proximity to the passing low to the north, as well as across the higher terrain and adjacent plains to the west Wednesday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, much of the area looks to remain dry, with the bulk of the associated shower/thunderstorm activity progged to be focused toward Central and East Texas where moisture will be much more abundant. The primary local concerns with the passing trough include the potential for both high winds and critical fire weather conditions for portions of the area. First, a High Wind Watch has been issued for the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday evening, with the potential for advisory conditions across the immediately adjacent plains. Blowing dust may also be possible, though likely more localized and mainly across SE New Mexico, where winds will be stronger and where most missed out on beneficial rainfall Friday night and Saturday. Fire Weather concerns also continue to increase today across the Guadalupe Mountains, and Wednesday further south across the Marfa Plateau, Presidio Valley, and Big Bend Area. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details. In the wake of the departing trough Wednesday night, a cold front will push through the region, resulting in below normal temperatures for Thursday. Northwesterly flow aloft through the end of the week will give way to ridging over the weekend, as temperatures rebound to near normal Friday, and well above normal into the 80s and 90s for Saturday and Sunday. The next trough will begin to progress eastward across the Great Basin late in the weekend into early next week, resulting in a transition to zonal flow aloft, and gradually moderating temperatures Monday into Tuesday, and continued dry conditions. The next chance for rain may be toward midweek, associated with the next trough, though discrepancy among guidance precludes any mention above slight chance at this time. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today SE NM and most of the Trans Pecos will remain on the west side of the dryline with high clouds in place until mid afternoon. West winds in the dry air will be driven by deep mixing and surface low formation/deepening in SE CO. Winds will be strongest in SE NM/GDP Mtns, should be a solid 20-25 mph in the afternoon. However ERC-G forecast at Pinery are forecast to be close to 50th percentile and according to 3 day averaged ERC for SE NM fuel moisture will mitigate significant fire potential. As such we will opt to issue a Fire Danger Statement today for SE NM/GDP Mtns. Wednesday will have another day of drying on the fuels and winds will ramp up to 25-35 mph type speeds in the plains, stronger in the GDP-Davis Mtns. However there is some uncertainty wrt how low RHs will get? Driest air will be confined from the Davis Mtns south to the Big Bend and the most critical fire wx are favored in Marfa Plateau/Big Bend/Presidio Valley. Another complication is the potential for some dry lightning across SE NM-GDP Mtns-Davis Mtns Wed PM. For now we will issue a Fire Watch for Marfa Plateau/Big Bend/Presidio Valley for Wed. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 84 59 80 52 / 0 10 10 10 Carlsbad 87 55 74 50 / 0 0 10 10 Dryden 84 60 88 58 / 0 0 0 10 Fort Stockton 88 59 79 53 / 0 0 10 0 Guadalupe Pass 77 50 65 46 / 0 0 10 10 Hobbs 85 51 72 46 / 0 10 10 10 Marfa 82 44 70 43 / 0 0 10 0 Midland Intl Airport 87 58 79 52 / 0 10 10 10 Odessa 86 58 78 51 / 0 10 10 10 Wink 89 56 78 50 / 0 10 10 10 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. TX...High Wind Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday evening for Big Bend Area-Marfa Plateau-Presidio Valley. && $$ 49/84