282 FXUS61 KBGM 160145 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 945 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warming trend will develop through the week with periods of on and off rain showers. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 945 PM update... Skies are clearing rapidly this evening due to strong low level dry air advection. Overcast skies are now confined to the western Catskills and western Mohawk Valley and these areas will clear out by midnight. Strong boundary layer mixing is keeping temperatures from falling quickly this evening although overnight lows will still reach the upper 20s to mid 30s. 3 pm update... Cold air continues to move in from the northwest. Rain showers are changing to snow showers. Surface temperatures in the upper 30s to low 40s AVP. 850 temperatures only bottom out around -5C this evening. High elevations in CNY could get a dusting. Where the showers linger the longest around southern Madison County snow amounts may approach an inch. Temperatures bottom out from the upper 20s to the mid 30s late tonight as skies clear from southwest to northeast. Winds will continue to blow at 10 to 20 mph so temperatures won't bottom out in the 20s with the dewpoints. A weak narrow ridge of high pressure crosses the area Tuesday morning. This is followed by a warm front that crosses east across NEPA and the central southern tier of CNY. With temperatures rising ahead of the onset of the precipitation, this will be a rain event. Rain comes in midday with temperatures around 50. Rain drops back south Tuesday night. At the very end snow might mix in with no accumulations. Rain amounts will be light and under half an inch with the highest amounts in Steuben County NY. Temperatures fall back into the 30s late Tuesday night. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... For Wednesday, the day begins under a surface high pressure ridge with a warm front projected to be well south of northeast PA and central NY, draped near the PA-MD border. This warm front is projected to extend west back to a surface cyclone in the central Plains. Models show an upper level trough axis swinging into the northern Plains during the afternoon and evening Wednesday. This upper level feature will support this surface cyclone as it tracks northeast to Minnesota and Wisconsin by Wednesday evening. The result of this will be to increase a low and mid level flow from the southwest. This will lead to increasing warm air advection/isentropic lift and push the warm frontal boundary northward Wednesday night. The warm air advection/isentropic lift and moisture advection maximizes Wednesday night so best chance for rain and showers will be at this time. The day Wednesday should remain mostly rain-free as all main synoptic models keep most of the QPF south of the region before 00Z Thursday. The NAM does have some light QPF reaching northeast PA late in the day Wednesday. Will have slight chance to cover this area. Then for Wednesday night, we will have more widespread showers for most of the forecast area given the above forcing. The models show a cold air damming signature over northeast PA to south central NY as the surface warm front looks to get hung up to our south all day. With southeast low-levels winds, all models show a lot of low-level moisture and it looks like the potential for some drizzle and scattered showers especially in northeast PA and southern tier of NY especially Thursday morning. The rest of the area will see plenty of clouds Thursday. The only place for some breaks will be the downslope regions in our northern counties along the Lake Ontario Plain. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... A chance for rain continues Thursday night with warm and moist air continuing to work into the region as another low pressure system heads into the Mid Atlantic. This will bring increasing chances for rain and thunderstorms Friday, with some strong storms not out of the question given a highly sheared environment. Rain and thunderstorms continue Friday night, then rain showers linger Saturday as the upper-level low continues to slowly move through the region. The cold front finally passes through Sunday with lingering precip chances throughout the day, largely wrapping up from west to east as high pressure starts to build in. However, some model runs indicate a chance for some wrap-around moisture or another wave to move through into Monday morning, so a slight chance for showers will continue mainly for Monday morning. Our best chance for a dry period will be MOnday into Tuesday morning, then additional rain starts to work into the area behind exiting high pressure. As for temperatures, look for morning lows generally in the 40s and 50s through the extended. Friday will be the warmest day of the period, with highs in the 60s to low 70s. This will be followed up by highs in the 50s and 60s the rest of this period. && .AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Low level dry air will clear skies out overnight. MVFR conditions at KITH/KBGM will scatter out by 02Z. At KRME/KSYR MVFR/Alternate Required ceilings will improve to VFR around 03Z-06Z. Just high clouds are forecast late tonight through midday Tuesday then a warm front will bring low VFR/mid level clouds to the southern terminals during the afternoon. Winds are west to northwest at 10-15 knots gusting to 25 knots then gradually decreasing Tuesday afternoon. Outlook... Tuesday night...Some restrictions possible during the evening with rain. Wednesday through Thursday...Primarily VFR. Friday through Saturday...Restrictions likely with rain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...HLC AVIATION...RRM