587 FXUS62 KMLB 151944 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 344 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019 .DISCUSSION... Tonight-Tuesday...High pressure shifts east toward the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight and then slowly southward into Tuesday. This will lead to decreasing low level winds as they veer from from the N/NE to E/NE into tomorrow. Airmass will stay quite dry even as winds veer onshore, with clear skies expected and rain chances remaining out of the forecast. Light northerly flow, clear skies and dry airmass will make for a cooler night, with lows in the 50s most areas. Highs on Tuesday will reach the upper 70s to around 80 degrees along the coast and in the low to mid 80s over the interior. Tue night-Wed night...An area of high pressure will be centered off the coast of the Carolinas on Tue night and it will linger off the coast as it stretches to the east through Wed. Local winds will be generally from the east on Wed, with temperatures climbing to the middle or upper 80s across the interior and to the lower 80s along the coast. On Wed night, the high will stretch northward, shifting local winds from the southeast and temps will drop to the mid 60s. Low moisture levels will keep dry weather conditions during this period. Thu-Thu night (previous discussion modified)...Southerly flow will increase as high pressure moves to the northeast of the Bahamas and away from east central FL and the next cold front advances east across the western Gulf of Mexico. This will gradually increase moisture across the FL peninsula with scattered showers and possibly a few storms Thu afternoon. Max temps will be in the mid 80s coast and upper 80s/near 90 interior. Coverage of storms should decrease Thu night but moisture will continue to reach east central FL through the night, keeping chances for showers high. Fri (previous discussion modified)...Model guidance shows a deep cut- off upper low developing over the central or southern MS valley Thu night and progressing across the OH/TN valleys Fri. The GFS is farther south (AR/MS) with the upper low while the ECMWF is farther north (IL/WI) on Fri morning. This upper system will be accompanied by a deep sfc low that will remain well north and west of EC FL. However, a trailing strong cold front is forecast to cross the forecast area late Friday into Friday evening, accompanied by a band of strong to possibly severe storms. Strong wind fields of 40-50 knots at 850 mb along with largely unidirectional flow indicates the primary threat should be straight line winds. The greatest uncertainty is how much heating/instability will be present ahead of the storms on early Friday. Considerable cloud cover and an earlier onset of convection would lower the threat for severe storms. Confidence is high though that this will be the next best chance for rain and have raised rain chances to 70 percent. Max temps will be in the low to mid 80s. Fri night...As the front exits the east central FL on Fri night, lingering showers and thunderstorms will clear from north to south and persist across the waters through the night. Low temps will get a chance to cool off, dropping to the mid to upper 50s for Lake and interior Volusia, while south of I-4 low to mid 60s are expected. Sat-Mon (previous discussion modified)...There will continue to be some cloudiness on Sat as the upper trough axis pushes across the area along with a few showers but the bulk of the moisture will be shunted east. Highs will be cooler, remaining in the mid 70s to around 80. Deep layer dry air on Sun and Mon will produce full sunshine with a NW breeze on Sun and east on Mon. Temps in the upper 70s/lower 80s on Sun and low to mid 80s on Mon. && .AVIATION...VFR conditions next 24 hours. && .MARINE... Tonight-Tuesday...N/NE winds up to 10-15 knots nearshore and up to around 15 knots offshore into tonight will veer to the E/NE into Tuesday, decreasing to 5-10 knots by the afternoon. Seas will also gradually decrease, with seas up to 3-5 feet offshore tonight and then 2-4 feet tomorrow. Tue night-Thu...Winds will veer E Tue night, E/SE Wed and SE Thu as high pressure exits the mid-Atlantic states and lingers off the coast through this period. Wind speeds of 10 to 15 knots Tue night- Thu with seas 3-4 ft are expected. Thu night-Sat (previous discussion modified)...Marine conditions will deteriorate Thu night ahead of an approaching strong cold front when south winds increase to 20 knots then 20-25 knots Friday and as high as 30 knots on Fri so a Small Craft Advisory looks to be needed, starting Thu night. Seas will increase rapidly late Thu through Fri, where 7 to 9 feet seas could develop across the offshore waters. A band of strong storms is forecast to sweep across the FL peninsula and offshore Fri and Fri eve along or slightly ahead of the cold front, reaching the waters and causing locally higher gusts and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Tuesday...Winds will decrease and veer onshore into tomorrow, which will begin to modify the dry airmass in place. However, min RH values will still fall into the low to mid 30s across the far interior tomorrow afternoon. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 55 77 63 80 / 0 0 0 0 MCO 56 84 62 85 / 0 0 0 0 MLB 59 79 67 81 / 0 0 0 0 VRB 59 80 65 82 / 0 0 0 0 LEE 55 83 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 SFB 55 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 ORL 58 83 62 84 / 0 0 0 0 FPR 58 80 66 81 / 0 0 0 0 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM/AVIATION...Weitlich LONG TERM....Negron