548 
FXUS62 KFFC 151830
AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
230 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather across north and 
central Georgia through tomorrow night. Dry and seasonal conditions 
will prevail. Gusty winds will gradually diminish around/just after 
sunset this evening.

DJN.83

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
Only tweaks to the long term based on the latest guidance.
An unsettled stormy period is still in the cards Thursday night
and Friday.

BDL

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Main concern in the long term period is timing and intensity of
convection on Thursday/Friday. After extended period of dry/very
warm weather dominated by upper ridging, high amplitude trough 
expected to progress eastward into the eastern CONUS by early 
Thursday. MLCAPE and deep shear should be sufficient for 
strong/svr convection however with near south to north flow aloft,
storm mode will most certainly be QLCS with damaging wind main 
threat. Heavy rain may also be expected but duration of rainfall 
not expected to be too long, less than 12 hours.

00Z and prev cycle deterministic and ensemble model agreement on 
timing and amplitude of upper wave quite high, so 12hr PoPs near 
categorical seem appropriate for Thurs night and Fri. Hopefully
storms will not be too intense. We could use a break in this
active pattern we have transitioned into.

SNELSON

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. Gusty NW winds
will occur through the remainder of the day with winds subsiding
shortly after sunset. Winds gradually turn to the E/NE overnight
into Tuesday morning as sfc ridge of high pressure overhead begins
to shift east. 

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
High all elements.

DJN.83

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          43  76  51  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Atlanta         48  76  55  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Blairsville     39  73  46  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Cartersville    43  77  52  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Columbus        49  78  55  82 /   0   0   0   0 
Gainesville     45  74  52  77 /   0   0   0   0 
Macon           45  77  52  81 /   0   0   0   0 
Rome            43  77  51  79 /   0   0   0   0 
Peachtree City  44  77  51  80 /   0   0   0   0 
Vidalia         48  78  54  84 /   0   0   0   0 

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DJN.83
LONG TERM....BDL
AVIATION...DJN.83