212 FXUS63 KLMK 150508 AFDLMK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Louisville KY 108 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019 ...Updated Aviation Discussion... .Forecast Update... Issued 1015 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Wind gusts on the Kentucky Mesonet sites now all are under 40 mph over the last 15 minutes, so allowed the Wind Advisory to expire. Have updated the zones to remove the headlines. It will be a chilly night, with temperatures now in the low to mid 40s. Forecast lows in the mid to upper 30s looks good. Still think mixing and cloud cover will keep us from frosting Sunday morning. Issued 645 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 LAV and MAV guidance insists on strongest wind gusts persisting past the 00Z Wind Advisory expiration time. Upstream obs are not as gung ho however...but our area still is seeing gusts to advisory levels. Will monitor the obs over the next hour and make a late decision to extend/expire that Advisory. Issued 510 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 Updated the forecast to cancel TOR Watch #63 as the best tornadic environment has shifted well to the east of our area. The severe threat seems to be waning quickly as well. Expect only a few strong storms over east central KY over the next few hrs. Post-frontal showers and gusty winds will continue throughout the evening. && .Short Term...(This evening through Monday) Issued at 305 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 ...Breezy With Severe Storms Possible through this Evening... Tornado Watch #63 has been issued for portions of east central KY through 9 pm EDT. Mesoanalysis shows 500-1000 j/kg of SBCAPE and 150- 200 SRH near Lexington and points east. In addition, good low level moisture exists with dewpts in the low 60s although LCLs look a little high in the area. Overall though the environment looks conducive to severe storms with damaging winds and large hail late this afternoon into early evening with an isolated tornado possible. The rest of the area west of the TOR Watch could still see strong to severe storms with the main threats being damaging winds and hail through early this evening. The severe risk will end as the cold front currently over west central KY moves east through the area this evening. The Wind Advisory for much of central KY still looks good through this evening with gusts of 40-50 mph being observed and expected to continue outside of showers/storms through 8-9 pm. Overnight, expect a few lingering late evening showers in the low clouds and continued gusty winds although wind gusts should lessen below Advsy levels after 8-9 pm. Overnight westerly winds will remain breezy with gusts in the 25-35 mph range common. Low temps will plummet behind the cold front into the 30s for lows. For Monday, expect dry conditions with skies becoming mostly sunny by the afternoon. High temps will range from the mid 50s to low 60s. .Long Term...(Monday night through Sunday) Issued at 250 PM EDT Sun Apr 14 2019 ...Warm Tue-Wed, storms Thu, cooler Fri-Sat... Flat ridging at 500 mb will be the rule across the OH Valley in the first part of the extended forecast period from Mon night thru Wed. Surface high pressure initially across our area Mon evening will quickly move east resulting in a good southerly low-level air flow on Tue and Wed. This will send temps up quickly from cool Tue morning lows in the lower to mid 40s to afternoon highs in the mid to upper 70s both Tue and Wed. The Mon night thru Wed period should be dry as well. By Wed night and Thu, another strong low pressure system will move NE across the Plains states and into the mid MS Valley area. Strong northward moisture transport and forcing in the OH Valley will set the stage for showers and thunderstorms, although the exact timing and details of the storm are still to be determined. Nevertheless, models suggest potential for some strong storms Thu or Thu night. Deep troughing aloft associated with this system will usher in much cooler air behind its cold front for Fri and Sat. Scattered showers also may occur Fri into Sat under the upper trough. Expect highs in the mid 50s to mid 60s Fri and Sat. Drier weather and a warming trend will begin next Sunday into early the following week. && .Aviation...(06Z TAF Issuance) Updated at 104 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2019 MVFR stratus, some fuel-alternate, is quickly pushing eastward across central Kentucky and southern Indiana. KHNB/KBWG have already cleared out from the stratus, and KSDF/KLEX should clear out over the next several hours. VFR conditions are expected in the wake of the stratus. Gusty WNW winds will also subside some this morning as the pressure gradient relaxes. Winds will generally remain out of the west through much of the forecast period. && .LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... IN...None. KY...None. && $$ Update...RJS/AMS Short Term...AMS Long Term...TWF Aviation...DM