564 
FXUS63 KMPX 141110
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
610 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

.UPDATE...For 12Z Aviation discussion below

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

A fairly calm short term period is expected. An increase in clouds 
overnight has inhibited fog development from south/east central MN 
across west central WI. To the west, patches of fog with 
visibilities below 1SM will be possible for the next several hours 
until winds start picking up after daybreak. 

Mid level clouds will continue to filter into the area in 
association with a system to the south and east, and some diurnal 
cumulus will develop by this afternoon as well. Temperatures will 
moderate today and tomorrow, with highs in the 40s today and upper 
40s to mid 50s on Monday. 

Faint shortwave energy traverses the mid-level flow on Monday. Have 
included slight chance POPS, and resultant QPF would be light. 
Thermal profiles point toward mostly liquid for precip type, except 
possibly at onset late Sunday night into Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 408 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

The main highlight of the long term is still the strong low pressure 
system set to bring widespread rainfall and strong winds to the area 
Wednesday-Friday.

Monday night through Tuesday night...a weak surface low will develop 
across eastern Colorado during this timeframe, leading to a weak 
warm front lifting north through much of Iowa. Aloft, a strong jet 
streak will lift north of our area and slide east over the Great 
Lakes Monday night, with the right-entrance region of the jet streak 
overhead. Subtle perturbations in the mean WSW flow aloft will move 
through Monday night as well. The end result is weak forcing for 
ascent across southern MN, which could bring a short duration of 
light rain to the area Monday night.  A deeply amplified upper level 
trough will move from the west coast into the four corners region 
Tuesday into Tuesday night. A resultant surface cyclone will begin 
to eject Tuesday night, moving east from Colorado across Kansas. 
This will reinforce the warm front across Iowa and bring showers 
into southern MN overnight, with isolated thunderstorm activity a 
possibility along the I-90 corridor.

Wednesday through Saturday...the low pressure system will move 
slowly east Wednesday as it deepens and will bring widespread 
rainfall to the local area, along with increasing northeasterly 
winds. The surface low still looks to move ENE through western Iowa 
and southern Wisconsin but is quite a bit warmer than the storm we 
had last week which had a similar track. Still expect predominantly 
rain with this system as surface temperatures and dew points would 
support rain as the primary p-type. Soundings on Wednesday would 
certainly support rain with plenty of warm air aloft, but the upper 
levels cool by late Thursday as the system occludes near the IA/IL 
border. Soundings would indicate melting would occur in the boundary 
layer. With surface dew points expected to be in the upper 30s at 
this time, would still expect rain primarily to reach the ground. 
Wind potential is looking more impressive especially for Thursday. 
Went above blended guidance for winds during this time. Could 
certainly foresee winds of 30-40 MPH possible during the day 
Thursday. 

Dry northerly flow will follow for Friday with a warming trend into 
next weekend as southerly flow develops behind the surface ridge 
axis Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT Sun Apr 14 2019

Low-end VFR clouds will continue expanding into the area this 
morning to the north/northwest of a Lower Mississippi Valley 
trough. Diurnal cumulus development is expected as well. This 
evening the low/mid clouds clear out but are replaced by the 
arrival of broken-overcast High clouds. Winds will be light 
northeast today, then veer to southeasterly tonight and increase 
to 7-10 knots. Lighter speeds are expected over to WI.

KMSP...No concerns.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Mon...VFR. Wind SSE 10-15 kts. 
Tue...VFR. Wind E 5kts.
Wed...MVFR/IFR. Rain. Wind NE 10-15 kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM...SPD
AVIATION...LS