695 FXUS62 KILM 140345 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1145 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Warm and humid weather will continue tonight thru Sun Night with isolated showers and thunderstorms tonight. The convection will increase in coverage with a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms occurring mainly from late Sun aftn thru late Sun night, up until the cold front sweeps off the Carolina Coasts and offshore. Strong and dry high pressure will follow late Monday through the mid week period of next week. The next cold front will slowly push across the Carolinas Friday through Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 10 PM Saturday...88D activity across the FA has waned with only a few showers left. Not much forcing or firing mechanisms overnight for convection to develop from. As a result, will tweak Pops to isolated/widely scattered coverage with locations from Cape Fear eastward possibly seeing some onshore movement of these showers. With cloudiness dominating overnight along with a low POP threat, do not anticipate a radiational type fog night. Eventhough winds may become calm at times well inland, but should remain active from the SSE-S at 2 to 4 mph. Currently, SSTs are running in the low to mid 60s with progged sfc dewpts in the mid to upper 60s fcst to advect across these waters and onshore. With cold pockets across the near-shore waters, ie. SSTs around 60 degrees, patchy sea fog could develop and partially push onshore within this low level SSE-SSW flow. At this point, do not anticipate the sea fog becoming dense over land. Balmy overnight lows in the 60s, ie. 10 to 15 degrees above normal, are expected across the FA. Followed by Sun fcst maxes in the 80s, ie. up to 10 degrees above normal highs. Previous..................................................... As of 300 PM Saturday...A long-lived convergence a+xis extending from Cape Fear southward by almost 200 miles has fed a continuous stream of clouds and showers across the Cape Fear area today. This may actually be the ghost of yesterday's warm front showing up as a 20-30 degree wind convergence line and slight dewpoint gradient. Satellite loops suggest mean winds around the boundary are veering enough that it should push east of Cape Fear shortly. Farther inland rich low level moisture led to a dense cumulus cloud field this morning which led to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms this afternoon. This activity is entirely supported by surface heating and should wrap up by sunset. A more concentrated area of thunderstorms north of Darlington and Bennettsville has developed along the cold front and should last into the evening hours, possibly affecting areas from Bennettsville through Lumberton and possibly as far east as Elizabethtown before dissipating. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to near 70 will likely result in widespread low stratus and patchy fog developing overnight. Forecast lows are in the upper 60s for most areas, 17-18 degrees above mid- April normals. Strong low pressure moving into the Ohio Valley Sunday should lead to increasing south winds across the Carolinas. Winds just 1500 feet up should increase to around 30 mph, and I'm using that as my forecast wind gust value for most areas tomorrow. The unseasonably warm airmass should with a little sun warm into the lower 80s away from the ocean, developing CAPE 1000+ J/kg. The approach of a 500 mb shortwave during the mid-late afternoon should be all the impetus needed for multiple lines of showers and t-storms to develop. Strong wind gusts should be the primary threat with these storms as they continue into Sunday night. The actual cold front should not arrive until after midnight, however rapidly drying mid-levels behind the initial shortwave should leave the front itself outlined with just clouds or perhaps showers. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Lingering clouds and showers may exist early Monday as cold front exits the coast. The deep westerly downslope flow will aid in drying, but will also help offset cooling through Mon. The 850 temps drop about 10C through Monday with dewpoint temps dropping about 20 degrees, but bright April sunshine will make it feel warmer in the sun and cool in the shade. Overall expect cooler and drier air to make its way into the coastal Carolinas in gusty W-NW winds and temps not climbing too much through the day. Temps should reach right around 70 most places. Winds will be diminishing through Mon night under clear skies. Although, the atmosphere may be slow to decouple, if at all, temps will drop in CAA a bit of radiational cooling right before daybreak. With such a dry air mass in place and dewpoints in the lower 40s, expect overnight lows down in the 40s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 300 PM Saturday...Dry weather will continue through mid week as ridge of high pressure migrates across the Southeast. Winds will become light and variable on Tues before coming around to the south on Wed as high pressure exits off the Carolina coast. Expect a rain-free forecast through Wed with only some cirrus streaming across the area. Air mass will warm and moisten in southerly return flow around exiting high through Thurs. This will introduce aftn cu and slight chc of a shower on Thurs. Moisture will increase further on Fri as air mass destabilizes in warm and humid air mass ahead of front. This cold front will march across the Carolinas Fri through Sat. Southerly winds will begin to increase as gradient tightens as early as Thurs eve. Expect fairly widespread clouds and decent coverage of shwrs and thunderstorms through Fri and possibly lingering along the coast through Sat aftn before system shifts farther east allowing for drying through the latter half of the weekend. Temps will warm into the 80s most places Wed through Fri with overnight lows on the warm side, remaining in the 60s. Temps will begin to cool on Sat. && .AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 0Z....Currently VFR across the area with a few lingering showers. While non-calm winds will hinder fog formation, plentiful moisture in the region will lead to MVFR/IFR ceilings overnight into early morning hours at all terminals. Conditions should return to VFR by late morning, but lingering intermittent MVFR conditions is possible in some areas. Precipitation returns late tomorrow associated with an upper level shortwave moving through. Slight risk some of these storms may become severe, with main threat strong wind gusts. Have left rain out of TAFs since chances increase last few hours of TAF period. South- southeast winds around 5 kts overnight will strength quickly tomorrow to southerlies around 15 kts sustained and gusts approaching 30 kts tomorrow afternoon. Extended Outlook...Isolated strong TSTMs possible late Sunday. VFR Monday through Thursday. && .MARINE... For Tonight into daylight Sunday... A broken south to north convergent line where SE-SSE flow meets up with S-SSW flow will persist just east of Cape Fear and result in few to occasional shower development. This convergent axis will push as a whole off to the ENE overnight and well away from the local waters during early Sun. Have continued to indicate patchy sea fog with vsby 1 to 3 nm possible. Progged sfc dewpts in the mid to upper 60s are fcst to move across cold pockets ie. around 60 degree SSTs, within the coastal waters, resulting in patchy sea fog. Will mention sea fog tonight thru Sun midday. Significant seas will run 3 to 5 ft tonight and build to 4 to 7 ft by sunset Sun and may be locally hier across the outer waters off Cape Fear and Romain respectively. Shower and thunderstorm coverage will increase Sun aftn and night with the strong/severe potential increasing early Sun evening and into the pre-dawn Mon hrs until the CFP. Previous................................................... As of 300 PM Saturday...A long-lived convergence zone south of Cape Fear has led to persistent showers streaming onshore all day. Clouds observed on satellite with this feature appear to be veering their heading up toward the Outer Banks, hopefully ending the "rain" of terror across the Cape Fear area by this evening. Humidity is at practically summertime levels, but water temps are still quite chilly in the mid 60s in many locations. The combination of high dewpoints and cold water could lead to areas of sea fog developing tonight, particularly across the South Carolina coastal waters. It's not certain how dense any sea fog might become, but latest statistical models indicates mainly 1-2 mile visibility. The approach of a cold front from the west will lead to increasing south winds during the day Sunday, reaching Small Craft Advisory levels (25 kt) during the afternoon. Winds will increase to 25-30 kt with gusts to 35 kt Sunday night as the cold front pushes across the area. The front should be preceded by showers and thunderstorms as well. Winds just above the surface should reach 40 knots Sunday night, but cold sea surface temperatures should limit how much of this momentum is able to mix down to the surface outside of thunderstorms. Winds will veer around on Mon as high pressure builds in behind exiting cold front, diminishing from near 20 kts in the morning down to 5 to 15 kts by Mon eve. Offshore diminishing winds will allow seas to drop below advisory thresholds by Mon aftn. Marine conditions will be quiet Tues into Wed as light northerly flow becomes more variable as high pressure migrates across the Southeast moving overhead and then further off shore Wed into Thurs. Seas should be less than 3 ft Tues aftn through Wed. A southerly return flow will develop as high pressure shifts off the coast into Wed, remaining light through early Thurs. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for SCZ054-056. NC...Beach Hazards Statement from 6 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for NCZ106-108. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT Sunday through Sunday evening for NCZ110. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 5 PM EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254-256. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DCH NEAR TERM...DCH/TRA SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...VAO