271 FXUS62 KMLB 131912 AFDMLB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Melbourne FL 312 PM EDT Sat Apr 13 2019 .DISCUSSION... Tonight...Active weather will push into the southeast states overnight as a strong 500 mb shortwave trough pushes across the Arklatex through the late night hours. Locally low level southeast flow will veer to the SSE by morning. Expect isolated showers across the interior in the late afternoon to continue westward toward Lake county this evening and last into late evening before dissipating. Lows will remain warm in the upper 60s to lower 70s for the interior to the lower to mid 70s along the east coast. Sunday...The mid level trough to the west will continue toward the southeast states with low level flow increasing from the south with breezy conditions. Scattered showers and storms are expected to develop over the peninsula into early afternoon and race fairly quickly to the northeast as mid level steering flow increases to 30- 40 knots. Will continue shower/storm chances around 40 percent. An isolated strong storm is possible with locally heavy rain, gusty winds and lightning. Highs will reach the upper 80s to around 90. Sunday night-Monday...Weak front will move through central Florida into Sunday night. A few storms may linger into the evening hours, either pushing offshore coastal locations south of the Cape, or moving into areas near to NW of I-4 with band of showers ahead of front. Otherwise, any convection will weaken by midnight as best dynamic support lifts north and instability weakens. Will maintain rain chances around 30 percent for Sunday night, then as drier air builds in behind the front, rain chances will end from north to south from late Sunday night into early Monday morning. Highs will be slightly lower, but still warm into Monday with values in the low to mid 80s over much of the area, except upper 70s along the Volusia coast. Tuesday-Saturday...(Modified Previous Discussion) Flattened mid- layered ridging centered over the south-central Gulf early in the period will get nudged eastward to across the Bahamas past mid-week as broad troughing develops across the central CONUS moving across the Deep South and north FL late Fri into Sat. At the surface, weak high pressure across the southeast U.S., will get pushed into the western Atlc Tue evening and drift slowly eastward into Thu. The much drier deep layer moisture over the FL peninsula will begin to moderate as PWATs begin to climb ahead of a slow-moving storm system that will push into the region Fri overnight and through the area during the day on Sat. We introduce a SCHC for light showers back into the Treasure Coast and Okeechobee Cty Wed overnight with a low-end Chc of showers (30- 40 pct) areawide Thu afternoon. Rain chances then continue to increase into Friday and Saturday, with strong to severe storms possible with passage of next front. There remains some uncertainty in the models in most favored time frame for rainfall/storms into late next week/early weekend, so will keep PoPs capped around 50pct Friday through Saturday. A small cool-down on Tue (near seasonal), then a warming trend Wed- Thu (above climo) ahead of the approaching low pressure. Fri could see some slightly cooler conditions (near/just above seasonal) with clouds/precip but should also be humid. Sat has potential for near to just below seasonal norms for highs. Generally 60s for lows, except L70s possible Space/Treasure coasts with the continued onshore flow through much of the period. && .AVIATION... SCT-BKN cumulus field mainly across the interior expected into early evening with isold SHRA mainly west of KMCO-KSFB into late afternoon and KLEE vcnty this evening. Have included VCSH in some interior terminals. Increasing low level southerly flow just above the boundary layer late tonight may lead to stratus development nrn terminals. && .MARINE... Tonight...SE winds around 15 knots tonight will veer to the SSE by morning. Will keep conditions just below SCEC criteria, though wind/wave conditions will remain poor offshore for small craft. Sunday...Southerly winds will increase to 15-20 knots with seas building to 6 ft offshore making for poor marine conditions for small craft on the open Atlantic waters. Storms will also move into the near shore waters from the mainland by mid to late afternoon. A few storms could have gusty winds over 35 knots, heavy downpours and lightning. Sunday night-Wednesday...Weak front moves through the waters Sunday night, with S/SW winds up to 15-20 knots offshore, briefly becoming W/NW up to 20-25 knots north of Sebastian Inlet as front moves through. This will keep seas up to 6 feet offshore. Northerly winds veer to northeast late day Mon with formation of a weak ECSB. The pressure gradient relaxes fairly quickly behind the front and wind speeds will decrease to 6-12 kts Mon afternoon thru the remainder of the period with direction continuing to veer from east to southeast Tue overnight into Wed. Rapidly subsiding seas will follow early next week thru mid-week promoting favorable small craft boating conditions. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 71 88 64 77 / 10 30 30 10 MCO 71 89 66 82 / 10 40 30 10 MLB 74 88 68 81 / 10 40 30 10 VRB 73 89 68 83 / 10 40 30 10 LEE 73 88 65 81 / 30 40 30 10 SFB 72 89 65 81 / 10 40 30 10 ORL 73 89 66 81 / 10 40 30 10 FPR 72 89 70 84 / 10 40 30 10 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. && $$ Volkmer/Weitlich/Rodriguez