182 
FXUS64 KTSA 130736
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
236 AM CDT Sat Apr 13 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Regional radar detects scattered areas of convection from west TX
east into portions of northeast TX/southern AR...ahead of a
developing upper cyclone currently across NM. Isolated convection
has recently moved into far southeastern OK, and the activity will
become more widespread through the morning hours as the upper
systems shifts farther east. A few strong storms capable of hail 
will be possible across the far southeastern portions of our 
forecast area, although the primary severe weather threat today will
remain well southeast of the region. The main threat for our area
will be locally heavy rainfall, with widespread rainfall amounts
of 1-2 inches likely today into tonight primarily along and south
of I-44. All-in-all expect a rather raw and breezy Saturday, 
with temperatures likely remaining in the 40s to lower 50s once 
the rain sets in. 

The upper low will track across eastern OK into southern MO this
evening and overnight, with the best chances of rain generally
along and just northwest of the track. Cooling temperatures aloft
would support a potential mix of rain/snow either late tonight or
early Sunday morning across far northeast OK/northwest AR,
although chances of any accumulation look very slim. 

Temperatures will rebound on Sunday (although still remain below
normal), with northwesterly surface winds in the wake of the
exiting upper low. A more impressive warmup will ensue early next
week as breezy southerly flow returns. Still seeing the expected
timing differences with the next upper system for mid-week,
although thunder chances still look good for the Wednesday into 
Thursday timeframe.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   51  39  62  47 / 100 100  10   0 
FSM   52  42  61  43 / 100 100  30   0 
MLC   50  43  61  47 / 100 100  10   0 
BVO   51  39  62  41 /  90 100  10   0 
FYV   50  39  56  38 / 100 100  40   0 
BYV   49  38  56  40 / 100 100  50   0 
MKO   51  41  60  43 / 100 100  20   0 
MIO   53  38  59  42 /  90 100  30   0 
F10   50  40  61  47 / 100 100  10   0 
HHW   56  43  62  44 / 100  70   0   0 

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....18