633 FXUS63 KILX 122311 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 611 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019 Overall, the short term is dominated by cooler and drier conditions for the first half of the weekend. Tonight will be clear and radiational cooling should drop the temps to a few degrees less than last night. Although the overall flow into the region is southwesterly, the warm up is a little more subtle going into tomorrow as the air masses are dominated by two deep lows. One, the exiting low to the north, the other still deepening over the desert SW. In the bigger picture, the low to the north is vertically stacked and the extreme NW of ILX CWA is on the edge of the cyclonic flow/cu field this afternoon. The next system to bring in precip and another chance for some snow NW of the Illinois River in Central IL is currently deepening over the Baja peninsula. Looking at model initialization with WV sat imagery from 12Z and through today, 500 mb was off just slightly on the southern CA coast. Moving forward to 18Z the shape of the upper level trough was just slightly off. Not convinced the differences will be significant in the long run, but will be interesting to see how the 00Z runs come in. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday) ISSUED AT 259 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019 The surface system associated with the western low will move out of the Southern Plains and track to the mid Mississippi River Valley, pushing precip into the region Sat night and into Sunday. Each run is a little more northerly with the track/spread of its precip. With that deformation zone stretching that far into the colder air, precip will likely be a mix of rain and snow in the early morning hours Sunday and for a few hours before noon. Have an inch to an inch and a half of accumulation possible...but it may not last long enough to measure accurately with rain mix/warm ground temperatures. Might look like winter for a little bit... and lose it quickly. Also, to be expected with this type of spring system...snow to liquid ratios will be much lower in a moisture laden system...resulting in heavy wet snow. Forecast rebounds through the first few days of next week. Temperatures actually soar quickly back up to the 70s with a more traditional southwesterly influence. Another wave arrives on the Pac NW coast, diving into the SW...before the surface low develops over the Rockies and moves into the Midwest. This system has more moisture associated with it and at least for now, looks to be an efficient rain producer. Still early for too many details, but the latter half of the work week should be mild temperatures with showers and thunderstorms. Front passes Thu night/Friday...bringing cooler temps going into the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening) Issued at 610 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. The strong wind gusts will be subsiding through 01Z, with sustained speeds down to 6-8 knots through much of tonight and Saturday. A storm system will be approaching from the southwest late in the period, though it appears any impacts to the TAF sites will be after 00Z. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ILZ027>031-036>038. && $$ SHORT TERM...HJS LONG TERM...HJS AVIATION...Geelhart