960 FXUS61 KBGM 122001 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 401 PM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An occluded front will cross the region this evening and overnight bringing a period of showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder. Saturday will be mostly sunny and mild with high pressure over the region. A wetter system will arrive Sunday, with a soaking rain lasting into at least early Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Mid level short waves well ahead of the surface boundary are producing showers across parts of northeast Pennsylvania. This activity will lift northeast into the southern Catskills during the late afternoon. An occluded front will cross the area this evening and overnight with a period of showers for the entire region. Models continue to show mid level instability so a rumble of thunder is also possible. The showers will be primarily east of I81 by midnight and out of the forecast area by sunrise. Only weak cold air advection will occur behind this front so overnight lows will only drop into upper 40s to mid 50s. Saturday...Surface ridging along with low level drying will lead to a mostly sunny day along with mild temperatures. Good mixing during the afternoon will make for breezy conditions. Highs will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s in central New York and in the upper 60s to mid 70s in northeast Pennsylvania. Saturday night...High pressure will move off the New England coast as low pressure moves into the mid west. Warm front is still well west and south of the region so dry weather is expected til sunrise. Overnight lows will range in the mid 30s to lower 40s in central New York and in the 40s in northeast Pennsylvania. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Deep surface low and negatively tilted upper trough will spin north up the Mississippi valley Sunday pushing warm and increasingly moist air into the region. The chance for showers will increase through the short term, with the highest chance over the western zones and lowest off to the southeast. Upper ridge off the east coast will slow the eastward movement of the low but keep a deep southwest flow over the area through Sunday. Cold front will pass through the area early monday morning bringing the risk of isolated thunder and embedded heavy convective showers into the early morning. Northwest surface flow behind the front as the upper trough swings through will bring instability rain showers into Monday. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... Left over rain and snow showers will continue into early Tuesday with the northwest flow. Ridging surface and aloft builds in for midweek bringing mild and dry weather to the forecast area. Yet another strong surface low takes shape over the center of the country allowing the ridge over the east to build keeping the area rain free into Thursday. late in the period there could be some showers developing over the western zones, especially the Finger Lakes but most of the area and time will remain dry. After a cool start, temperatures will be above normal for the period under the ridge, and epically later in the period as a deep southerly flow develops. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... An occluded front will cross the region this evening with MVFR/Alternate Required showers along the boundary. Thunderstorms is also possible but not included due to limited coverage of threat. By 04Z-06Z the showers will be east of the terminals but MVFR/Alternate Required ceilings will persist until almost daybreak. At KAVP, IFR ceilings are likely between 06Z-10Z. Saturday mid morning skies will scatter out or become clear. Low level wind shear at KRME/KAVP through this evening. Southerly winds at 10-15 knots with gusts to 25 knots becoming southeast this evening and diminishing. Westerly winds on Saturday around 10-12 knots and gusting at KSYR. Outlook... Saturday through early Sunday...Mainly VFR. Midday Sunday through Monday...Restrictions expected as a wet system moves through the region with rain. Monday night through Tuesday...Showers lingering/possible restrictions for mainly the NY terminals especially Monday night; becoming mostly VFR. Wednesday...Primarily VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...RRM SHORT TERM...DGM LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...RRM