238 
FXUS63 KMPX 121928
AFDMPX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
228 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

Light snow should gradually end from west to east this evening as 
the occluded system exits and weakens. Will hold onto some chance 
PoPs into the evening with residual forcing. Expect clouds to remain 
into Saturday with cyclonic flow/CAA. Should see erosion from the 
west during the day as Surface high builds into the area. Have 
included the isolated shower mention to the east in some remaining 
cyclonic flow. Some clearing into Saturday evening before more 
clouds possible later on as a weak short wave approaches. 

Overall, with new snowpack, should see temperatures remaining in the 
mid 30s to lower 40s Saturday. 

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

The beginning of the week will start out relatively quiet and cool, 
but temperatures will warm into the middle of the week. It does 
appear that a developing storm system will bring widespread 
precipitation across the Upper Mississippi River Valley. At this 
point the thermal profiles are warm enough that most of the 
precipitation should fall as rain when it starts Tuesday night, but 
there could be some snow flakes mixed in as the storm system departs 
Thursday evening. 

The 12.12 GFS ensemble shows a strong signal for precipitation 
starting as early as Tuesday evening, with around 1.5 inches of rain 
by the time the storm exits the region Friday morning. The ECMWF 
also has this system developing, and has shifted to the northwest to 
come better in line with the GFS. This will be a large synoptic 
cyclone covering 1000s of square miles as the deformation band 
develops. Given the large area of precipitation to work with, have 
increased pops above the blended guidance for Wednesday and 
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019

Low pressure center moving close to metro now. Expect it to lift
northeast into western WI and weaken rest of the afternoon. Still
have some wraparound light snow moving through east central MN and
this should lift east/northeast and weaken. Overall snow will 
wind down and end most area through 00z. MVFR cigs expected to 
remain overnight into Saturday morning. Winds becoming NW-W as 
low lifts out and still could see wind gust to 25kts into the 
evening. 

KMSP...Light snow exiting to the east/northeast early becoming 
MVFR cigs overnight and lifting to VFR Saturday afternoon. Surface
winds becoming SW to W rest of the afternoon and gusty into the 
evening as system exits to the east. 

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Sat night...VFR. Wind NW 10kt. 
Sun...VFR. Wind NW to NE 5kt. 
Mon...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind SE 5-10 kts. 

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DWE
LONG TERM...JRB
AVIATION...DWE