832 FXUS61 KCLE 121031 AFDCLE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Cleveland OH 631 AM EDT Fri Apr 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front near the Lake Erie shore will move north of the area this morning. A cold front over eastern Illinois will move east across the region today. Deep low pressure will move northeast through the western Great Lakes tonight. A ridge of high pressure will build east across the area Saturday. Low pressure will move northeast out of Texas to Ohio by Sunday evening. A warm front will lift north across the area Sunday followed by a cold front Sunday night. A ridge of high pressure will build north into the region through mid week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers and thunderstorms continue to develop along the front at this time. Outflows from the convection to the west are spawning new convection further east. This trend will continue through the morning as the activity advances east. Needed to adjust some temperatures across the area as some places have warmed to 70 degrees. Warmer air is finally starting to push into Toledo and Erie. Previous Discussion... A large upper level ridge over the western Atlantic Ocean will continue to move off the east coast today. An upper level low pressure system over northern Iowa will move northeast through central Ontario, Canada tonight to Quebec. Troughiness will persist across the local area through Saturday morning while a slight upper level ridge tries to build into the region by Saturday afternoon. A surface low pressure system nearly vertically stacked under the upper level low pressure system will move with the upper level low into the western Great Lakes during this forecast period. A warm front extending east from the low along the Lake Erie shoreline will lift north this morning. Big difference in air temperatures across the forecast area at this time. Temperatures still remain in the 40s in and around Toledo while areas to the south and east of there are in the 60s. Further warming will take place as winds increase from the south this morning. Looking at warm air advection pushing temperatures into the 60s west and 70s pretty much across the rest of the area. Instability does not look at that exciting today with the cold front and SPC shifted the marginal risk for severe thunderstorms south and east of the local area. Can't rule out a few stronger wind gusts with the thunderstorms as they tap into the stronger winds aloft at 40 to 50 knots. As cold front pushes east of the area today, drier air will follow and bring an end to the threat for showers and thunderstorms by this evening. Surface high pressure will begin to build into the local area from the northwest Saturday and fair weather will continue. However, another storm system will approach from the southwest and we should start to see some cloud cover spread northeast into the area by Saturday afternoon. Weak cold air advection will follow the cold front tonight and drop temperatures back into the lower 40s west and middle and upper 40s east. Air mass is not expected to be all that cold and highs tomorrow will creep back up into the lower 60s west and middle 60s southeast. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... A southern Plains shortwave will lift up across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys over the weekend taking a surface low to northern OH by Sunday evening and a ridge following for Monday night. It will be a potent but shearing system will bring showers with the warm front later Saturday night and thunderstorms with the narrow warm sector on Sunday afternoon. Fairly good consistency among the models taking the low into northeast OH and maintaining the cooler northeast flow into northwest Ohio. Will be running below normal with the upper trough/wrap around moisture to deal with (at least through the first half of the day). && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Area will be on the northern fringes of a broad ridge positioned across the southeast U.S. for mid week. The developing baroclinic zone appears to be in the vicinity of the lake and toward NW PA as low pressure gathers across the central Plains. A disturbance or two may bring some precip across the far north and have chance PoPs for that possibility. The system nears Thursday with increasing moisture advection. Will steadily increase precip chances going into Thursday night with a muddled warm sector and the cold front still off to our west. Temperatures will moderate some each day and will reserve the temperatures in the 60s with the expected cloud cover. && .AVIATION /12Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/... A warm front along the Lake Erie shoreline will lift north today as a cold front moves east across the region by late this afternoon. Expecting showers and thunderstorms to continue developing ahead of the cold front. Ceilings will drop to around 2500 feet and visibilities between 3 and 5 miles with the thunderstorms. Otherwise, VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Winds have increased ahead of the front with some gusts to 30 knots possible. Clearing will take place behind the front later tonight. OUTLOOK...Non-VFR possible on Sunday into Monday and again Tuesday. && .MARINE... The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for today. Winds have shifted to the south-southeast, but will often be 20 to 25 knots. The passage of a cold front today will shift those winds to the south-southwest and with high pressure building across the Ohio Valley Friday night, winds and waves will diminish and subside, respectively. The next low will track out of west Texas and reach the in vicinity of Lake Erie Sunday night. High pressure will be directly overhead Saturday evening, but winds will respond to the approach of the low by Sunday morning with a stiff northeast wind. This may bring lake levels up again (although not expecting it to be as high as Thursday was). The low will shift east-northeast of the Lake Monday with cold advection and a northeast wind in its wake. Small Craft Advisory conditions will be likely Sunday into Monday. && .CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OH...None. PA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for LEZ142>149. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Lombardy NEAR TERM...Lombardy SHORT TERM...Oudeman LONG TERM...Oudeman AVIATION...Lombardy MARINE...Oudeman