178 FXUS65 KABQ 120945 AFDABQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 340 AM MDT Fri Apr 12 2019 .SYNOPSIS... An active weather pattern will continue as the next storm system moves in from the west today. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected over much of the area. Temperatures will become cold enough tonight and Saturday for accumulating snow across the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and extending into portions of northeast New Mexico. Below normal temperatures today will persist Saturday as precipitation becomes focused over the central and east. Temperatures will warm up Sunday through Tuesday with increasing wind and potential for critical fire weather conditions Monday and Tuesday in the eastern plains. Wednesday will be colder again with more wind and showers central and east. && .DISCUSSION... Another storm system is on it's way to New Mexico early this morning. While precipitation is expected to begin over the west and north today, it will become more widespread tonight and Saturday. Models are rather wet, with the Sangre de Cristo Mountains and portions of northeast New Mexico under a favorable low level easterly flow, with potential for accumulating snow. Models suggest the west central mts may see decent precipitation amounts, but not getting adequate snow amounts to include that part of the cwa in the winter storm watch. Precipitation to become focused over central and eastern New Mexico Saturday, with much cooler than normal temperatures. Near freezing temperatures possible over the east central Saturday night where climatological data indicates early to mid April is within the normal or later potential occurrence. A brief upper ridge Sunday with much warmer temperatures and drier westerly breezes. Winds will turn southwesterly and increase Monday and especially Tuesday with well above normal temps over eastern NM. Another storms to cross the state Tuesday night and Wednesday, with strong winds and precipitation central and east. Temperatures fall back below normal. && .FIRE WEATHER... A storm system will cross New Mexico today through early Saturday which will bring precipitation to portions of the state. Through this afternoon, precip will favor portions of west central NM as well as the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. By late tonight and early Saturday, precipitation will remain focused over the Sangres, but will shift over much of eastern NM. Significant snow accums are possible across the Sangres, while a mix of rain and snow is likely elsewhere. A few thunderstorms will also be possible today area-wide and Saturday west of the central mountain chain. Temperatures will remain well below normal through the period. Temperatures quickly rebound on Sunday to within 5 degrees of normal. A deepening surface trough will allow winds to pick up from near Clines Corners to Santa Rosa. Humidity will also fall to near 15 percent. Haines and temps will be marginal, thus only spotty critical fire weather conditions are possible. Wet soils from the previous days precip may limit the threat altogether though. Temperatures rise back above normal for all areas on Monday and most areas will see sub-15% humidity values during the afternoon. Winds look to be strong enough to support a few hours of critical fire weather conditions across northeast New Mexico. Winds will increase further on Tuesday as another storm system shifts over the Great Basin. Cooler temps and higher humidity values are expected across the west, but critical fire weather conditions will be possible again on Tuesday afternoon across eastern NM. The system will cross near the NM/CO border on Wednesday, and another strong surface low is expected. Therefore, it looks like portions of NM may see another round of strong winds. Cooler temperatures will also return for Wednesday as well as precipitation chances at least across northern NM. Good to excellent ventilation is forecast for all areas the next several days, except over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains today through the weekend. 34 && .AVIATION... 06Z TAF CYCLE Mid and high level clouds will continue to move across the state overnight. An upper level trough will approach the state on Friday, causing cigs to lower. Precipitation will also develop, initially across western NM, but will quickly spread to the northern and central mountains. Periods of heavy snow will be possible over the Sangre de Cristo Mountains through Friday night, causing visibilities to lower and mountains to be obscured. By early Saturday, precipitation will focus across eastern NM, with a mix of rain and snow. 34 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 55 31 58 30 / 20 20 10 0 Dulce........................... 50 25 51 23 / 30 30 30 5 Cuba............................ 48 28 50 28 / 50 50 40 10 Gallup.......................... 48 24 54 24 / 50 30 10 0 El Morro........................ 45 24 51 23 / 60 50 20 5 Grants.......................... 47 24 53 23 / 50 40 20 5 Quemado......................... 45 27 53 26 / 50 40 20 5 Glenwood........................ 54 34 63 33 / 40 20 20 0 Chama........................... 46 22 46 20 / 50 50 50 20 Los Alamos...................... 46 31 47 29 / 50 50 50 20 Pecos........................... 45 30 42 27 / 60 60 70 30 Cerro/Questa.................... 44 26 42 23 / 50 70 60 40 Red River....................... 36 20 34 18 / 60 80 80 50 Angel Fire...................... 40 21 37 17 / 60 80 70 50 Taos............................ 48 25 46 23 / 40 60 50 30 Mora............................ 45 27 40 24 / 60 80 70 30 Espanola........................ 53 32 52 30 / 40 40 30 10 Santa Fe........................ 46 32 46 30 / 50 50 50 20 Santa Fe Airport................ 50 30 50 28 / 40 40 40 20 Albuquerque Foothills........... 52 36 55 35 / 40 40 30 10 Albuquerque Heights............. 53 36 56 35 / 30 30 20 5 Albuquerque Valley.............. 56 35 59 33 / 30 30 20 5 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 55 36 58 34 / 30 30 20 5 Los Lunas....................... 54 32 58 29 / 30 20 20 5 Rio Rancho...................... 54 35 57 34 / 30 30 20 5 Socorro......................... 56 36 61 36 / 30 20 20 5 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 31 48 30 / 50 50 40 10 Tijeras......................... 49 30 51 29 / 50 40 40 10 Moriarty/Estancia............... 50 27 51 24 / 50 40 50 10 Clines Corners.................. 46 28 44 26 / 60 60 70 20 Gran Quivira.................... 50 31 51 30 / 40 30 40 20 Carrizozo....................... 54 34 55 35 / 30 30 40 10 Ruidoso......................... 48 29 47 29 / 40 40 60 20 Capulin......................... 45 24 37 22 / 40 60 70 20 Raton........................... 49 28 42 23 / 60 60 60 20 Springer........................ 49 30 44 25 / 50 60 60 20 Las Vegas....................... 46 28 41 25 / 60 70 70 30 Clayton......................... 52 29 41 27 / 20 50 60 5 Roy............................. 49 31 42 27 / 40 50 60 10 Conchas......................... 58 36 48 31 / 30 50 50 10 Santa Rosa...................... 55 35 47 31 / 30 50 50 10 Tucumcari....................... 59 35 47 30 / 20 40 60 5 Clovis.......................... 60 35 43 29 / 10 50 70 5 Portales........................ 62 36 45 29 / 5 50 70 5 Fort Sumner..................... 60 36 48 30 / 10 40 50 10 Roswell......................... 67 41 55 34 / 5 30 60 5 Picacho......................... 58 36 50 33 / 20 40 60 10 Elk............................. 54 31 49 30 / 20 40 60 20 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Winter Storm Watch from this evening through Saturday afternoon for the following zones... NMZ512>515-527-528. && $$