633 FXUS63 KMPX 120903 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 403 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019 Occluded low pressure system entering southwest MN early this morning and will continue on it's northeast track as it continues to fill. The circulation center is evident on radar early this morning, as snow showers continue wrapping around the low in a counter-clockwise fashion. The low will move from southwest MN through just west of the Twin Cities toward Duluth today. The eastern side of this track will see spotty snow showers turning to a mix of rain and snow showers by this afternoon as temperatures warm. To the west of the low track, deformation snow will continue through the day producing up to 1-2" of additional snow across western MN today. Winds have decreased significantly since yesterday, but surface wind speeds will increase later today especially after the low has moved through. Winds will turn northwesterly and cold air advection aloft will lead to efficient mixing and 15 to 20 MPH winds with gusts to 30 MPH across far western through southern MN this afternoon. Highs today will only top out in the low to mid 30s for the most part. Ended PoPs from southwest to northeast tonight as wrap around snow showers finally exit with the system to our northeast tonight. Surface high pressure starts to build in Saturday, which will be dry. The problem is aloft, where cyclonic flow associated with the departing system will remain through most of the day Saturday, leading to a mostly cloudy day and with the cool airmass still in place, temperatures only topping out in the lower 40s. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Apr 12 2019 Dry high pressure builds in over the weekend. Temperatures will moderate about 5 degrees each day into next week, with highs in the upper 40s to upper 50s by Tuesday. These temps will effectively melt the snow early next week. A weak wave is forecast to clip the area on Monday into into Tuesday. This could bring a quick bout of rain and snow. The next potential for widespread precipitation may arrive Wednesday into Thursday. However, models still vary in how they phase northern and southern stream troughs, so confidence is low. At this point, southern MN looks to have the highest chances The ECMWF keeps the system mostly to our south, while the GFS brings extensive precipitation into the area. Will continue to mention low-end chance PoPs for now, with temperatures looking to remain warm enough for a mostly rain event. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night) Issued at 1126 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019 As the dry slot moves east, we're seeing rain and snow expand across MN to the north of an occluded front that is just crossing I-90. Precip will continue to the north of the front and west/northwest of the low through the night and most of Friday as well. All but AXN/STC will see a break in the precip behind the front before wrap around precip works in. CIGS will remain in place through the period, but expect mainly MVFR cigs outside of AXN/RWF/STC based on obs we're seeing down across Iowa/Neb. KMSP...We'll see precip cut off when the occluded front moves through (around 11z), in addition, we may see cigs go VFR briefly in the morning before everything fills back in. Any precip we see Friday looks on and off and a mix of rain of snow. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Sat...MVFR cigs, bcmg VFR late aftn. Wind NW 10kt. Sun...VFR. Wind NW to NE 5kt. Mon...Chc MVFR cigs. Wind SE 5-10 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for WIZ014>016- 025-027-028. MN...Winter Storm Warning until 10 AM CDT this morning for MNZ041- 047>049-054>059-061-064-065. Winter Storm Warning until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for MNZ042>045-050>053. && $$ SHORT TERM...SPD LONG TERM...LS AVIATION...MPG