832 
FXUS64 KLUB 111929
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
229 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A weak impulse moving across New Mexico this afternoon in the  
west-northwest flow aloft may produce a few high-based showers
across the western counties this evening, but the dry sub-cloud
layer and limited areal scope of the showers is not enough to
insert a mention into the forecast at this time.

Focus then shifts to Friday night's and Saturday's precipitation
event. The 12z model suite is in pretty good agreement with the 
evolution of the low that will move to near the Pecos River of
southeastern New Mexico and West Texas at 12z Saturday then to the
Rolling Plains around 00z Sunday. The initial precipitation is
likely to be across the Rolling Plains as early as mid to late
Friday evening across an area that will have some elevated
instability over an initially shallow cool air mass that will have
moved through the forecast area earlier in the afternoon and
evening. The elevated instability is progged to be enough to
generate some thunder and possibly even a risk of strong to
marginally severe weather (note the WRF-NAM prog of about 1200 
J/kg of MUCAPE at Aspermont at 03z Friday). Increasing lift to the
east and northeast of the upper low favors most widespread
rainfall across the eastern half of the area Friday night and
early Saturday. However, the model consensus suggests the
likelihood of a maturing deformation zone developing to the north
and northwest of the low through the day Saturday that would
spread the precipitation westward. The WRF-NAM is the most
aggressive with this scenario and as a result also chills the
column quite aggressively. Progged soundings show only a very
shallow near-surface layer of temperatures warmer than freezing.
Thus, some snow mixing in with the rain is not out of the
question, mainly on the Caprock across the northern row or two of
the forecast area. A mature deformation axis with wrap-around
precipitation would also delay the egress of said precipitation
and have thus expanded and increased rain chances slightly on
Saturday evening.

The remainder of the forecast is looking fairly quiet with warming
temperatures Sunday through Tuesday with an upper level ridge
moving across in the progressive pattern aloft. The next upper
trough is still progged onto the Plains on Wednesday, although as
expected, there remains wide variability with its evolution. The
12z model suite is favoring a bit further north trajectory with
slightly lower shower/thunder chances as a result.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

07