179 
FXUS64 KLUB 111719
AFDLUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
1219 PM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions in place at KLBB/KPVW/KCDS and will remain so
through this forecast cycle.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019/ 

AVIATION...
VFR conditions in place at KLBB/KPVW/KCDS and will remain so
through this forecast cycle. Front has also pushed through all
three TAF sites resulting in a north to northeasterly wind. Will
see a gradual decrease in speeds and a shift to the east by this
evening.

Jordan

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 340 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Surface winds have finally dropped below 20 mph for most of the FA 
to allow for a relatively quiet period before the front pushes 
through. The front is currently located across the southern Texas 
Panhandle and is currently draped across our northern row of
counties. Winds can be expected to increase back up to the 25-30 
mph range immediately following the fropa and last into the mid 
morning before dropping off to below 20 mph after noon. Winds will
continue to drop off through the afternoon/evening and settle in 
the 5-10 mph range early tomorrow morning as a surface ridge 
settles over the region. This will allow temps to drop into the 
30s/low 40s by surprise Friday morning. A light freeze continues 
to be possible across our extreme northwestern counties Friday 
morning with a light frost possible across much of the Caprock.

The next system of interest will come late Friday into Saturday as 
another upper low amplifies as it pushes from the Pacific Northwest 
to West Texas. Some uncertainty continues to surround this next 
system mainly with the possibility for a rain/snow mix across our 
northern counties as well as position of the upper low. The ECMWF 
for the past couple of runs has brought the upper low slightly 
further south than the GFS and in turn is more generous with rain 
coverage. The GFS is a bit drier and slightly quicker with the low. 
Overall rain chances still look good especially for the Rolling 
Plains so pops will remain in the likely category. So far the only 
model to really support a rain/snow mix is the NAM as thermal 
profiles show by other models remain slightly too warm, though that 
could change as the upper low moves overhead.

Upper ridging will move in Sunday as the low passes to our east 
allowing a warm-up into the 60s/70s. Monday will be even warmer with 
highs getting back into the 80s. Another upper low could affect the 
region by mid next week bringing cooler air and rain once again.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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