933 
FXUS65 KFGZ 110429
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
929 PM MST Wed Apr 10 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Clearing and decreasing winds will continue overnight
tonight. Another weather system will move across Arizona on 
Friday and bring an increased chance of precipitation and 
continued cool temperatures to the region. A gradual warming trend
begins Saturday before unsettled weather returns next week.

&&

.UPDATE...Shower/flurry activity has all but ended across northern
Arizona tonight. Cloud cover continues to decrease at a slower
pace so have updated forecast to keep cloud cover longer tonight.
Have also adjusted POPs for the next system Friday through Friday
night to be more in-line with new model data and neighbors. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /236 PM MST/...

The Rest of Today...Northwest flow aloft is bringing cloud cover
and moisture trailing behind the strong upper-level trough that
is passing over Arizona today. Shower coverage will decrease this
evening after sunset. A chance of thunder exists in these storms
due to some afternoon instability in the region. Wind gust up to
55 mph are possible through the early evening as the tightened
upper-level pressure gradients associated with the passing trough
move eastward.

Thursday...Sunny to mostly sunny skies are expected tomorrow as
drier air settles over Arizona for a short time period.
Temperatures will remain cool with gusty northwest winds
increasing again after sunrise. By late tomorrow night, another
trough will begin to increase the chances of overnight snow and
rain showers for northern Arizona.

Friday...Model variations still exist on the timing of the next
trough that will pass over Arizona on Friday. The greatest
chances for precipitation with this system exist during the late
morning to early evening hours on Friday. These showers will
largely be driven by daytime convective activity with the moisture
pool transported by the trough. This trough will allow for a
continued west to northwest flow pattern.

The Weekend & Beyond...Shower chances and sky coverage each
decrease from west to east beginning Friday night into Saturday
as the trough moves eastward. Shower chances persist in far
eastern Arizona into Saturday afternoon. Models are in good
agreement on a ridge building over southern California and Arizona
early Sunday. This ridge will create warmer daytime temperatures
and mainly dry conditions both Sunday and Monday. Beyond Monday,
considerable model guidance disagreement exists on the timing of a
mid-week trough. This disagreement has led to some uncertainty in
the forecast snow levels for any precipitation that could fall.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 06Z Package...For most of northern Arizona 
expect VFR conditions through the next 24 hours. The exception, 
local MVFR/IFR ceilings through 14Z over the higher elevations of 
far eastern Arizona. Otherwise, northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts 
gusting to 20 kts overnight increasing to 10 to 15 kts gusting 25 to 
30 kts by midday Thursday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF 
amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Look for dry conditions and northwesterly breezes 
on Thursday. A weather disturbance will bring widespread wetting 
rain and mountain snow on Friday. Ventilation will generally be 
excellent Thursday afternoon but only fair to good on Friday under 
lighter winds aloft.

Saturday through Monday...Expect lingering showers through Saturday 
morning in eastern Apache County and southern Navajo County before 
drier weather returns for all of Saturday evening. Sunday and Monday 
are forecast to remain dry with temperatures warming back to around 
normal. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MAS/NL
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff