374 FXUS64 KSHV 110258 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 958 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019 .UPDATE.../Tonight/ Winds helping to hold our temps up in the mid 70s across the region tonight. Tough to gage just how much temps are going to be able to fall, as the winds are forecast to stay up across most of the area all night. Latest blends seem to be unreasonably cool, but ongoing fcst seems to be a bit warm. Have split the difference and lowered temps a few degrees across the board. Otherwise, fcst is on track. /12/ && AVIATION... VFR conditions to continue through the evening and overnight hours before MVFR cigs develop across the wrn half of our region around sunrise. Any low cigs should mix out by mid morning. Gusty sly winds will continue through the pd, bcmg wly to nwly by the end of the pd for E TX terminals, as a cold front moves across the region. May see a few tstms across S AR/N LA during the aftn, but coverage too isold to mention attm. /12/ PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019/ SHORT TERM.../Tonight through Thursday Night/ South winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts to near 30 mph this aftn across much of the area with these winds likely to actually increase across ne TX and surrounding area into the eve. This portion of the lwa is in effect until 4 am while areas just outside of the strongest winds should subside just slightly after sunset, with a lwa expiration of 7 pm. Pressure gradient creating these winds to shift eastward and expect s-sw winds to increase again across LA/AR where a lwa will be needed again for Thursday by mid morning, while winds further west over ne TX and se OK may remain just below criteria. Keeping overnight lows generally in the lower to middle 60s with this mixing while dewpoints approach 60 degrees. Low clouds spreading north just after midnight over ne TX where overnight lows could remain in upper 60s. A frontal boundary slowly movg across area late Thursday may spark some widely scattered convection across nrn LA and north central AR, durg the late aftn and eve. A few more upper lvl clouds as well which should keep daytime highs in the lower to possible middle 80s Thursday and possibly upper 70s north of I-30, more affected by cold front./07/. LONG TERM.../Friday through Tuesday night/ Potential for Severe Weather Outbreak Saturday... The forecast period begins with GFS/ECMWF/Canadian agreement that a closed upper low will be centered across the Upper Midwest on Friday with a broad long wave mid-level trough across the Intermountain West. Locally, this will put the region in southwesterly flow aloft. A weak high pressure system will pass north of the area on Friday, allowing for a mostly dry day across the area. A warm frontal boundary will lift northward into Arkansas late Friday and the chance of thunderstorms will return into Friday night across the area. The upper level trough will begin to eject out of the Desert Southwest on Saturday, with a closed low developing over the Texas Panhandle by Saturday afternoon. At the surface, a developing low over central Texas will strengthen as it moves northeastward across the ArkLaTex on Saturday afternoon and into Arkansas by Saturday night. East of the low, the warm front will be setup right along the Arkansas/Louisiana border. With strong forcing from the trough and warm front, strong shear (60-80kts 0-6km) and moderate instability (SBCAPE around 2000 J/kg) this will allow for potentially severe thunderstorms to develop across the region with a threat for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. The Storm Prediction Center has indicated an increased threat with a 30% probability for severe weather for a corridor that extends from Carthage, Texas to Shreveport to Natchitoches to Monroe in Louisiana. This enhanced threat in the Day 4 Outlook typically is expected only once or twice a spring, indicating the potential for a significant event in our area. The event is different from previous severe events this year in that the best forcing/shear align with the peak heating of the day for our area, so we will need to watch this closely in the days ahead. With recent heavy rainfall last weekend, flash flooding and river flooding will also be threats this weekend. By Sunday, the models are in agreement that the surface low will pull further northeast into the Ohio Valley with its cold front pushing east of our area early in the day. Thus, dry and cooler conditions can be expected on Sunday as a surface high builds in from the west. High pressure will remain the dominant feature, keeping the forecast dry through Tuesday. The next system will approach from the west, with the chance of thunderstorms returning Tuesday night. For temperatures, highs will be near normal values as the area gets into the warm sector Friday and Saturday. In the wake of the cold front, temps on Sunday will be around 10 degrees below normal, with highs in the 60s across the area. Temps will quickly recover to near normal values in the mid to upper 70s across the area early next week. /04-Woodrum/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 65 82 53 79 / 0 20 20 10 MLU 64 83 57 76 / 0 20 40 10 DEQ 64 76 43 72 / 0 10 0 0 TXK 65 80 47 74 / 0 10 10 0 ELD 63 82 49 76 / 0 20 30 10 TYR 65 81 49 76 / 0 10 0 0 GGG 66 82 50 78 / 0 10 0 0 LFK 65 81 56 82 / 0 10 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for ARZ059-070-071. LA...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for LAZ001-002-010. OK...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for OKZ077. TX...Lake Wind Advisory until 4 AM CDT Thursday for TXZ096-097- 108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153. && $$ 12/07/04