035 FXUS64 KMAF 101118 AFDMAF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX 618 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019 .DISCUSSION... && .AVIATION... AWW in effect today for MAF for sustained W to SW wind of 30kts with gusts to 40kts or greater. High Wind expected at all TAF sites today except FST... could see severe turbulence in vicinity of Guadalupe Mtns. Blowing dust may lead to marginal MVFR vsbys this afternoon. Wind speeds will slowly decline this evening. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 443 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2019/ DISCUSSION... * Widespread high winds and extremely critical fire weather conditions expected Today. A powerful upper level storm system currently in the Great Basin will track through the Rockies today and onto the High Plains by late tonight. The surface lee low in western Kansas is progged to intensify significantly today with support from the upper low with strong winds aloft developing. Despite a marginal surface pressure gradient, deep mixing should allow the stronger winds aloft to reach the surface with high winds likely across southeast New Mexico and much of west Texas today through this evening. High Wind Warnings or Wind Advisories are in effect through this evening for southeast New Mexico and all of west Texas. Since the stronger winds aloft will be slow to move out of the region, the High Wind Warning will continue overnight and through Thursday afternoon in the Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains and the Davis Mountains above 4800 feet. It will also likely remain windy across areas mainly south and west of the Pecos River Thursday and more Wind Advisories may be needed. It will remain dry but much cooler Thursday and Friday behind this system with temperatures at or below normal. By Friday night and Saturday another upper level storm system and cold front will be headed toward the forecast area. These two system will combine to bring the threat of showers and thunderstorms to the region with the best chance north and east of the Pecos River, north of the cold front. Dry weather is expected behind this system Sunday through next Wednesday with temperatures warming to above normal again by next Monday. FIRE WEATHER... Expect extreme fire wx conditions today as unseasonably warm temperatures combine with a dry airmass and high wind today to produce dangerous conditions. A Red Flag Warning is in effect today and tonight for all of W TX and SE NM. High Wind Warnings and Wind Advisories are in effect today for all of W TX and SE NM. Temperatures today will climb into the 80s and 90s and be 10 to 15 degrees above normal. This will result in minimum RH values this afternoon in the single digits areawide. RFTI values of 8 to 9 cover the area. A strong upper trough and deep surface low will combine with strong wind aloft that will mix down to the surface to produce extremely windy conditions. This afternoon could see 20ft wind of 35 to 45 mph with gusts higher in the plains and 40 to 70 mph with gusts higher in the mountains. May see measured 30ft wind gusts to 100 mph in the Guadalupe Mountains. Any fire that starts today will have the potential to spread rapidly. Expect much improved fire wx conditions Thursday and Friday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Big Spring 96 51 72 43 / 0 0 0 0 Carlsbad 85 47 70 43 / 0 0 0 0 Dryden 101 58 79 51 / 0 0 0 0 Fort Stockton 98 52 73 48 / 0 0 0 0 Guadalupe Pass 74 45 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 Hobbs 82 44 68 38 / 0 0 10 0 Marfa 86 41 67 36 / 0 0 0 0 Midland Intl Airport 94 51 73 45 / 0 0 0 0 Odessa 92 50 73 44 / 0 0 0 0 Wink 95 48 73 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NM...High Wind Warning from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM MDT this evening for Central Lea County-Eddy County Plains-Northern Lea County-Southern Lea County. Red Flag Warning from 9 AM this morning to midnight MDT tonight for Southeast Plains. High Wind Warning until 2 PM MDT Thursday for Guadalupe Mountains of Eddy County. Red Flag Warning until midnight MDT tonight for Guadalupe Mountains. TX...High Wind Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM CDT this evening for Andrews-Borden-Chinati Mountains-Davis Mountains Foothills-Dawson-Eastern Culberson County-Ector- Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland- Mitchell-Reeves County Plains-Scurry-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. Red Flag Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ this morning to 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday for Andrews-Big Bend Area- Borden-Crane-Davis/Apache Mountains Area-Dawson-Ector- Gaines-Glasscock-Howard-Loving-Marfa Plateau-Martin-Midland- Mitchell-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Reeves County and Upper Trans Pecos-Scurry-Terrell-Upton-Van Horn and Highway 54 Corridor-Ward-Winkler. Wind Advisory from 10 AM this morning to midnight CDT tonight for Central Brewster County-Chisos Basin-Crane-Lower Brewster County-Pecos-Presidio Valley-Reagan-Terrell-Upton. High Wind Warning until 3 PM CDT /2 PM MDT/ Thursday for Davis Mountains-Guadalupe Mountains Above 7000 Feet-Guadalupe and Delaware Mountains. Red Flag Warning until 1 AM CDT /midnight MDT/ Thursday for Guadalupe Mountains. && $$