458 FXUS63 KTOP 100455 AFDTOP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Topeka KS 1155 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019 ...Update to aviation forecast discussion... .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019 Southeasterly winds combined with sunshine and deep mixing of the PBL allowed temperatures to soar into the 80s today. As of 20Z, the CWA was positioned between surface high pressure to the east and a developing surface low to the west. The developing system to the west will continue to strengthen and will bring noticeable changes to our conditions beginning tonight/tomorrow. The surface low will deepen in the Front Range of the Rockies before moving into the High Plains tomorrow. The pressure gradient will respond by increasing in strength, which in turn will boost winds to near advisory criteria, especially near and south of I-70. Southerly winds are expected to be sustained between 20-30 mph with gusts over 40 mph possible tomorrow afternoon. Fire danger will be in the high to very high category during the afternoon, primarily given the strong winds. By mid-afternoon, the surface low should be positioned in western KS with a warm front setting up near the KS/NE border. Low level moisture will surge northward with the aid of the strong south winds. Dewpoints across northeast KS are expected to reach the upper 50s to near 60 degrees by late in the afternoon with a dryline developing in central KS. Most of the day should be dry with the area largely capped by warmer air aloft. However, instability will build throughout the day as the system approaches and lapse rates steepen in the mid and upper levels. Surface based CAPE could reach and exceed 1500 J/Kg in parts of the CWA, with the highest values likely located in north-central KS. As the system approaches during the afternoon, there could be enough forcing to overcome the CAP and thunderstorm could develop. Storms that develop will be capable of reaching severe limits. Large hail and damaging wind will be the main hazards, however, a few tornadoes will also be possible given shear parameters, especially in north-central KS. Storms should quickly track northeast along the fast moving boundary and exit northeastern KS by 05/06Z Thursday. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday) Issued at 338 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019 Much cooler air will filter in behind a cold front on Thursday and winds will shift to a west-northwesterly direction. Winds are again expected to be strong Thursday with sustained WNW winds of 15-30 mph, gusting to over 40 mph at times. Fire weather concerns will remain elevated due to gusty winds and drier air moving in. RH values, however, only look to drop to around 40% during the afternoon. There could still be a few light rain showers around Thursday and Thursday night. As temperatures cool Thursday night, some snow could mix in across the northern CWA. No accumulations are expected at this time. Winds will begin to subside on Friday as surface high pressure slides in from the northwest. High temperatures on both Thursday and Friday look to be limited to the 50s with overnight lows dropping into the 30s Thursday night and Friday night. Friday night should be the coolest night with most of the CWA below freezing. The next system to impact the region will bring a chance for rain Saturday afternoon and night. Rain could linger into early Sunday morning as an upper low passes south of the area. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night) Issued at 1153 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019 Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with thunderstorms possible north and west of the TAF sites between 00 and 06Z Wednesday night. Winds will remain from the south to southeast, with LLWS tonight throughout the area and gusty winds of 20 to 30+ kts on Wednesday. Strong LLWS of 40 to 60 kts redevelops shortly after sunset on Wednesday and persists past 06Z. && .TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 1 PM to 7 PM CDT Wednesday for KSZ037-054-058- 059. && $$ SHORT TERM...Teefey LONG TERM...Teefey AVIATION...Skow