890 FXUS64 KAMA 100157 AFDAMA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 857 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019 .UPDATE... Have upgraded Fire Weather Watch for Wednesday to Red Flag Warning for all sections. Also, have made minor adjustments to temperatures, dewpoints and related fields for the rest of tonight. Updated text products will be issued shortly. Cockrell && .PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 616 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019/ AVIATION... For the 00z TAFs... Good flying weather continues through tonight before high winds begin Wednesday morning. No clouds other than cirrus expected. Light to moderate south to southwest surface winds expected overnight as surface low pressure trof migrates eastward across the Panhandles. Powerful low pressure system will intensify during the day on Wednesday as it moves through the eastern half of Colorado. Associated Pacific cold front will move eastward across the forecast area during mainly the afternoon hours. Tightening gradients at all levels will lead to strong southwest winds through a deep layer of the atmosphere. Southwest surface winds expected to commence gusting at or above 35 kt around 15z to 16z. As surface low deepens and mixing to a greater height occurs, southwest surface gusts of 50 to 60 kt expected by 19z or 20z. Apart from any visibility reductions in blowing dust, VFR conditions expected next 24 hours. Cockrell PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 421 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019/ SHORT TERM... Southwest winds are expected to increase into the 35 to 45 mph range by afternoon across much of the Panhandles as a surface low strengthens in southeast Colorado. As the low moves to the east, a cold front will surge southward and winds will be just as strong if not stronger behind it. Therefore, will continue with the High Wind Watch for all of the area for much of Wednesday into Thursday. The winds may stay up around 40 mph with higher gusts into Thursday afternoon across the northeast CWA and we are not sure if they will stay this strong across the rest of the area, but any slight shift in the track of the low and the rest of the area could have stronger winds longer as well. Some light rain showers and snow showers will be possible across the northern CWA behind the cold front Wednesday night, but any precipitation looks to be light at this time. Highs on Thursday will be some 10 to 15 degrees below normal. LG LONG TERM... The main item of interest in the extended forecast is the potential winter precipitation on Saturday across portions of the Panhandles. The last ~24 hours of raw model guidance has been in remarkable agreement with the track, speed and strength of a 500mb trough as it digs south and then east across the Southern Plains as an open wave, possibly becoming a closed low as it crosses the southern Rocky Mountains. This would result in the formation of a 700mb low somewhere in east central NM or West Texas, near the southern Panhandles while a surface low develops near the Big Bend region of TX. This would tap into the remnant Canadian airmass across the central plains while isentropic lift and upslope flow develops ahead of the low across the Panhandles Saturday morning. Moreover, retained likely pops for precip on Saturday. Precip type is currently looking like rain initially Friday evening, switching to snow across portions of the area Saturday morning, then back to rain Saturday afternoon. There is currently good overlap of lift and saturation within the DGZ across most of the area Saturday morning possibly into Saturday evening. The main question will be with the thermal profile below 850mb which will mostly depend on how strong and how far north the 700mb low verifies. Most guidance suggest surface wet bulb temperatures hover right around 0 degrees C while CAA brings 850mb temperatures down just below 0 deg C Saturday on the north/northwest side of the sfc low. This would likely support accumulating snowfall for some of the Panhandles , especially in any areas of deformation where the heavier precip will setup. Also, there are some hints of CSI based on weakly negative saturated EPV Saturday morning, which also suggest some pockets of heavier precip. Of course, all of this doesn't matter if the system changes course, speed or strength. Even though there is good model agreement now (although the Canadian has changed its tune to warmer and drier), the upper wave won't be sampled well until Thursday. It has happened many times before where models are in agreement this far out, but as soon as sampling occurs it start to become more apparent that the system may shift south/north, be weaker or slower, and even subtle changes can have a large impacts on snow forecasts. The main idea right now is to stay informed by trusted weather leaders, and try to avoid getting caught up in hype surrounding any deterministic snowfall forecast you may see on social media at this stage in the game. Ward FIRE WEATHER... Critical fire weather conditions will be possible across all of the Panhandles on Wednesday. Therefore, will keep the fire weather watch going for Wednesday. Southwest winds at 35 to 45 mph with gusts close to 70 mph and low relative humidity values below 15 percent will cause the critical fire weather conditions. The critical fire weather conditions will slowly wane during the evening on Wednesday behind a cold front as relative humidity values increase. Winds are expected to remain strong on Thursday, but relative humidity values should remain above 20 percent. LG && .AMA Watches/Warnings/Advisories... TX...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson...Collingsworth... Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray...Hansford...Hartley... Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb...Moore...Ochiltree... Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter...Randall...Roberts... Sherman...Wheeler. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for the following zones: Armstrong...Carson... Collingsworth...Dallam...Deaf Smith...Donley...Gray... Hansford...Hartley...Hemphill...Hutchinson...Lipscomb... Moore...Ochiltree...Oldham...Palo Duro Canyon...Potter... Randall...Roberts...Sherman...Wheeler. OK...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 10 PM CDT Wednesday for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas. High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday evening for the following zones: Beaver...Cimarron...Texas. && $$ 03/77