952 
FXUS64 KLCH 100115
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
815 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019

.DISCUSSION...
For 00z TAF issuance.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main issue this period looks to be fog potential overnight...with
lots of question marks due to extreme variability amongst the 
guidance. With good radiating conditions and rising dew points,
potential looks fairly good for the swrn terminals which is in
agreement with high res guidance. However temps around sunrise 
will approach the crossover threshold so will have to monitor for
possible development over there as well. For now, am just carrying
a tempo mention at KLCH/KBPT. Post-sunrise, main issue again will
be elevated winds, albeit this time from a developing onshore
flow.

25

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 PM CDT Tue Apr 9 2019/ 

DISCUSSION...
Quite a warm and sunny afternoon around the region with
temperatures pushing into the 80s at most observing sites, and
even into the upper 80s in SE TX. With dew points mostly in the
50s, it thankfully was a fairly pleasant dry heat. Southerly winds
quickly pick up at the surface tomorrow morning, but overall the 
column remains dry with the upper level ridge dominating, so 
expecting another mild and sunny day with highs once again in the 
80s.

Forecast becomes a little trickier by the time we get to the end
of the week and into the weekend. Late Thursday evening into
Friday a shallow weak boundary slides into the region. In general
forcing looks minimal and PWATS at best push into the 1.25" or so
range during the day ahead of the front, so kept POPs minimal. 
Some drier air moves into the NW portion of the CWA as the front 
stalls out across the region on Friday but we'll still be looking 
at daytime temps near 80. Deeper moisture increases by Saturday 
morning as a potent shortwave slides into the southern Plains and 
surface cyclogenesis begins in the ArkLaTex region. Expect lower 
end POPs early morning Saturday after stalled frontal boundary 
rushes northward in response to cyclogenesis, with POPs increasing
through the day before cold front pushes through by late Saturday
evening. As indicated by a day 5 SPC severe outlook, parameters 
will also be fairly favorable for severe weather. Modest 
instability / mid level lapse rates combined with favorable shear 
profiles will lead to favorable overall conditions for all severe 
hazards. Additionally, deep moisture will make these efficient 
rain producers, and heavy rain may also become a threat before the
cold front pushes through and activity tapers off. Current 
expectation is for a general 1-3" rainfall with some higher 
localized amounts by the time the system moves out. By the start 
of the work week, ridging looks to build in with a return to 
pleasantly mild and dry weather.

MARINE...
Modest onshore flow expected on Thursday with winds near or
exceeding 20kts at times, and small craft headlines will be a
potential in following forecast packages. Boundary slides through
the region on Friday and stalls, with moderate onshore flow again
developing Saturday as front rushes north in response to low
pressure forming in the ArkLaTex region. A few strong storms also
appear possible Saturday until cold front moves through overnight
into Sunday. Moderate offshore flow then expected to develop for a
short time in the wake of the front before high pressure settles
over the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  58  85  62  81 /   0   0   0  20 
LCH  61  82  66  80 /   0   0   0  20 
LFT  61  85  64  81 /   0   0   0  10 
BPT  62  83  66  80 /   0   0   0  20 

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$