077 FXUS66 KLOX 100008 AFDLOX Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 508 PM PDT Tue Apr 9 2019 .SYNOPSIS...09/1257 PM. Winds will be strong and gusty through Wednesday then breezy through the end of the week. There is a chance of mountain showers for the remainder of today and another chance on Friday. Otherwise conditions will be dry and cooler. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...09/209 PM. Northerly winds continue to be the primary weather feature across the area and likely will remain that way through Friday. Strongest winds still appear to be tonight into early Wednesday as upper support and surface gradients are peaking, though both factors will remain favorable through the end of the week with possibly a secondary peak late Thu into Fri following the passage of the next trough which also will take a more inside track. Warnings look good for the mountains tonight, especially SB County and near the I5 corridor. Advisories in most other areas. Winds are expected to decrease later tonight and Wednesday morning but will likely be extending the SB County and I5 corridor advisories and warnings through at least Wednesday morning and very possibly through as late as Thursday night, though the mountain winds should drop off to more advisory levels after tomorrow morning. We did see a pretty big drop in temperatures today as the trough brought in much cooler air aloft and west/east gradients turned strongly onshore. However the northerly winds will offset some of that cooling such that temps will remain at or slightly above seasonal norms for coast/valley areas south of Pt Conception through at least Friday. Models and their ensembles now are trending farther east with the Friday trough so odds strongly favor any precip being confined to the north facing slopes similar to this morning. .LONG TERM (SAT-TUE)...09/213 PM. A little ridge will develop Saturday for slight warming but onshore flow is expected to return Sunday and Monday as a weak trough pushes into the west coast. That should bring temperatures back to near normal levels with gusty onshore winds in the Antelope Valley. A little warming expected Tuesday as onshore flow weakens and a weak ridge develops. && .AVIATION...09/2358Z. At 2300Z at KLAX...There was a marine inversion based at 400 feet with a top at 1200 feet with a temperature of 20 degrees C. High confidence in VFR conditions. The main issue will be the widespread, gusty northerly winds across much of the forecast area. There could be some moderate to strong UDDF along ridgelines through Wednesday morning. Gusty W-N winds will have the potential to cause LLWS/turbulence across the area. Coordination with CWSU resulted in a slightly more aggressive stance toward north cross winds for this evening. KLAX...Moderate confidence in 00z TAF. Moderately strong NW-N crosswinds through 10Z with direction between 320-350 degrees and gusts to around 25 knots. There is a 20% chance of gusts up to 30 knots at times during this period. Winds expected to remain NNW after 10Z and will decrease some, but gusts 20-22 knots likely to continue through 18Z-20Z. BUR...Moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF. Gusty NW winds with turbulence and LLWS. Strongest winds forecast 00Z-06Z but could persist for 2 hours past this time. && .MARINE...09/1229 PM. For the Outer Waters...high confidence in Gales continuing through Wed night, at least. Northwest wind gusts expected to reach 40 knots, with potential for isolated 45 knots or more at times today through tonight. Gales expected to continue until early Thursday morning with gusts to 35 knots, then SCA winds much of Thursday followed by a chance of additional Gales Thursday night through at least Friday. For the Inner Waters north of Point Sal... Gale force winds should continue through Wednesday evening. There could be a brief time when when Gales lower to Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels early Wednesday morning. After that time, SCA level winds will continue each afternoon and evening through Friday evening. Winds will be strongest in the western portion. For the Inner Waters south of Point Conception... There is a 70% chance for Gale force winds across the western portions this morning, then overspreading much of the inner waters by this afternoon through the overnight hours. Otherwise SCA level winds will continue at times through Friday. && .BEACHES...09/1232 PM. Issued a high surf advisory through 14z Wed for the west facing beaches of LA/Ventura counties where strong winds should cause wind waves capable of reaching 7 ft or more. The short period waves are not likely to cause surf of 10 feet, so the central coast will not see high surf conditions. High surf poses a risk to anyone that enters the ocean. Strong and deadly rip currents will likely occur with this event. People are urged to stay off rock jetties, as there is a long history of fatalities from people that go on the rocks and into tide pools during high surf events. && .LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...Wind Advisory in effect until 8 PM PDT this evening for zones 34>36. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 37-38-40-41-44>46-51-59-87-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect until 11 AM PDT Thursday for zone 39. (See LAXNPWLOX). Beach Hazards Statement in effect through Wednesday morning for zone 39. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Surf Advisory in effect until 7 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 40-41-87. (See LAXCFWLOX). High Wind Warning in effect until 11 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 52>54. (See LAXNPWLOX). Wind Advisory in effect from 11 AM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Thursday for zones 52>54. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ...Gale Warning in effect until 9 PM PDT Wednesday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for zones 650-655. (See LAXMWWLOX). Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Thursday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX). && .HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (FRI-TUE). Gusty northerly winds are expected through early Friday, especially for the mountains and southern Santa Barbara County. High surf is possible on Central Coast beaches Friday. && $$ PUBLIC...MW AVIATION...Smith MARINE...Sweet/Kaplan BEACHES...Sweet/Kaplan SYNOPSIS...JLL weather.gov/losangeles