304 FXUS61 KBGM 081844 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 244 PM EDT Mon Apr 8 2019 .SYNOPSIS... After a quiet overnight, a cold front will bring showers to NY and PA on Tuesday. Temperatures will be noticeably cooler on Wednesday as Canadian high pressure slides over the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... 235 PM update... Dry air advection will yield a partly sunny end of day with mild temperatures in the 60s and 70s. Gusty winds will settle down toward sunset. Overnight, thickening relative humidity profiles suggest low stratus or light fog will form across many of our NY and PA counties as temperatures drop into the 40s. A cold front will cross the lakes on Tuesday and spread showers across our region, especially across the northern half of our forecast area. Temperatures will mainly peak in the upper-50s to lower-60s with warmer temperatures to the south and cooler readings over Northern Oneida County. A rumble of thunder remains a slight possibilty on Tuesday as a thin sliver of instability crosses NY and PA. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Wednesday...A cold airmass will be over the region Wednesday morning with temperatures at 850mb around -10C. Model soundings indicate low level flow around 330 degrees so best chance for morning flurries would be over the Finger Lakes region and central southern tier. Skies will becoming partly sunny by afternoon with highs ranging from in the lower to middle 40s across central New York and 45 to 50 in northeast Pennsylvania. A brisk northwest wind will make for a rather chilly spring day. Wednesday night...Upper level heights start rising as surface high pressure noses down from southern Ontario. Mainly clear skies and light winds will allow temperatures to drop into the mid 20s to lower 30s. Thursday...High pressure will move from the vicinity to the east coast as low pressure moves into the western Great Lakes. Some models indicate enough warm air advection during the afternoon for a slight chance for showers from the central southern tier across the Finger Lakes and into the Mohawk Valley. Highs will recover into the upper 40s to mid 50s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... 420 AM Update... Thursday night into early Friday looks fairly dry, however, confidence continues to be high that a low pressure system develops in the Plains and tracks northeast into Ontario and Quebec by Friday night. This will drag a cold front through our area, with rain likely Friday afternoon through evening. The system has a look of perhaps including embedded thunder, and in coordination with offices to the west and south, mention of it has been added to the forecast. One strike against it, is that the system is a bit stacked and amplified, and may evolve to more of a occlusion situation which would limit instability. We will continue to monitor in coming days. Rain largely tapers off from west to east Friday night, but a few lingering showers are not out of the question for Saturday - especially across our northern areas - as another wave passes through upstate NY. Otherwise, expect breezy conditions Friday and Saturday with this passing system. After upper 50s-lower 60s Friday, temperatures will fall back a bit over the weekend. Rain showers linger early Saturday night, as temperatures fall back into the 30s. A brief dry period is possible for the late Saturday night to midday Sunday with some ridging behind the exiting system. However, models are actually in pretty good agreement for being so far out, that another low pressure system will move northeast up the Ohio River Valley into our region later Sunday through Monday for a good chance of rain. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Showers have moved east of the terminals this afternoon. Gusty west winds are forecast for the remainder of the day. A few gusts between 25 and 30 knots are expected as VFR conditions and partly cloudy skies persist. MVFR stratus and light fog will form across most of our NY terminals overnight. Thereafter, rain showers will drop into KRME, KSYR, and KITH tomorrow morning with additional MVFR restrictions. Outlook... Tuesday afternoon...Mainly VFR an isolated shower or thunderstorm can not be ruled out. Potential restrictions the first few hours in the morning. Tuesday night through early Wednesday...Restrictions possible in rain showers, possibly changing to snow showers. Late Wednesday through Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Friday...Ceilings lowering to MVFR/IFR with rain late. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DJP NEAR TERM...DJP/TAC SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...HLC AVIATION...DJP