557 FXUS63 KICT 080935 AFDICT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wichita KS 435 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night) Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2019 Forecast Highlights: 1) Strong S-SW winds to produce much warmer weather Wed to cause a Very High & perhaps even Extreme Grassland Fire Danger Wed afternoon. 2) Wind Advisories likely to be issued Wed afternoon & Thu. 3) Much colder weather scheduled for Thu & Fri nights. Today & Tonight: All areas to experience mostly sunny & warmer weather today as a weak sfc low moving E across the Northern Plains induces nice downslope component across KS. It'll be clear sailing tonight as weak inverted ridge axis works its way from Manitoba to about the Nebraska/KS border late tonight. The clear skies & winds that'll become light & variable would produce excellent radiational cooling with a 30-35F diurnal range areawide. Tue-Wed: Now it gets interesting. An upper-deck trof that'll rapidly deepen as it moves E across the Great Basin undergoes cyclogenesis as it moves across WY & CO on Wed. This would cause explosive sfc cyclogenesis over Eastern CO & Northwest KS early Wed morning. S-SW winds would really ramp up Wed afternoon & evening & with the airmass becoming DEEP & dry adiabatic sustained 25-35 mph speeds with gusts around 40 mph are likely, certainly mid-late Wed afternoon. This would easily send the Grassland Fire Danger into "Very High" & perhaps even "Extreme" country Wed afternoon. The ".FIRE WEATHER..." section provides details. Persistent southerly winds from 10-20 mph warranted raising Tues night's lows to around 60 with OK-bordering areas on warmer side of fence. Wed's highs were likewise raised with ~85F assigned to all areas. Wed Night: As the upper-deck cyclone continues its trip E primarily over KS, the vicious sfc cyclone will move along the KS/Nebraska border. As the cyclone reaches the SE Nebraska/NE KS border early Thu morning a STRONG cold front will surge SE, likely reaching the NW corridor of KICT Country Thu morning. The NW winds wrapping around the sfc cyclone are STRONG, spreading from W & NW KS to the NW corridor of the KICT forecast area early Thu morning. Another Wind Advisory may be required for Russell & Barton Counties late Wed Night/very early Thu morning. Scattered post-frontal showers are still expected to spread into Central KS late Wed night with a rain/snow mixture still possible very early Thu morning. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2019 Thu-Fri Night: As the cold front pushes across KS on Thu, a sharp temperature gradient would result with Russell & Barton counties struggling to reach the lower 40s while SE KS reaches the upper 50s. Scattered light rain coupled with stiff NW winds will make for a raw day for most of Central KS on Thu. The work-week ends on a very chilly note as high pressure spreads into Nebraska & KS. Frost Advisories are very certain for most areas Fri morning. Next Weekend: As the sfc high moves across the Northern Plains another more cold weather will dominate KS Sat morning but at this time central KS would have the best chance to drop to around freezing. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night) Issued at 1137 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019 VFR conditions expected to prevail thru the forecast valid period. Surface high pressure ridge will drift southeast across central and southeast Kansas overnight. Patchy dense cirrus will likely limit chances for patchy MVFR fog vsbys in southeast Kansas before drier air advects south across the area toward dawn. Light and variable winds will become west-southwest on Monday ahead of a surface trough. This trough is expected to move across central Kansas in the afternoon and southeast Kansas by early evening. KED && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Apr 8 2019 S-SW winds really ramp up on Wed with sustained 25-35 mph speeds & gusts around 40 mph likely. The deepest dry adiabatic airmass should be situated over Central KS where an "extreme" grassland fire danger now appears possible, especially for Russell & Barton counties. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Wichita-KICT 82 51 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 Hutchinson 82 50 79 59 / 0 0 0 0 Newton 80 50 78 60 / 0 0 0 0 ElDorado 80 51 79 61 / 0 0 0 0 Winfield-KWLD 81 51 80 62 / 0 0 0 0 Russell 81 49 81 57 / 0 0 0 0 Great Bend 81 49 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Salina 82 49 79 60 / 0 0 0 10 McPherson 81 49 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 Coffeyville 81 51 80 61 / 0 0 0 0 Chanute 80 50 78 59 / 0 0 0 0 Iola 79 50 77 58 / 0 0 0 0 Parsons-KPPF 80 51 79 60 / 0 0 0 0 && .ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...EPS LONG TERM...EPS AVIATION...KED FIRE WEATHER...EPS *Retransmitted*