629 FXUS64 KMEG 080216 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 916 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019 .UPDATE... Updated to reduce evening rain chances across the northeast counties. && .DISCUSSION... Radar trends/short term model guidance suggests evening convection will generally stay confined to the southwest Delta counties and across North Mississippi for the remainder of the evening. So have reduced rain chances across portions of west Tennessee north and east of Jackson. this region should see the greatest push of activity after 1 am. Also reduced thunderstorm coverage this evening as the region mains highly stable in the wake of earlier convection today. All other forecast parameters are currently on track. Heads up...latest guidance indicating a slower track with the storm system across eastern Texas. This outcome would bring is showing another 1-2 inches of rainfall to the area and the threat for additional severe storms along and south of I-40 through sunset...with large hail be the greatest concern. JAB && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 629 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019/ UPDATE... Updated for the 00Z Aviation Discussion PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 343 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019/ DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms continue across the region in a marginally unstable atmosphere. At this time no Watches look imminent and our window of opportunity for a watch this afternoon seems to be closing as the stronger storms shift into Middle Tennessee and Alabama. Additional storms may approach from the Southwest later this evening. The strongest dynamic support for impactful thunderstorms is over Missouri and the greatest instability for impactful storms is over Northeast Mississippi, but weakening quickly. Flooding is also a concern, especially over North Mississippi where multiple storms are expected to track over the same area. Guidance has been pretty consistent, resulting in 1.5 to three inches total beginning today, through tomorrow afternoon. Unless a particular location gets hit multiple times, such totals should not be overly impactful. An area to watch is along the I-40 corridor mainly from Arlington, TN West into Arkansas where 1-2 inches has already fallen. Current temperatures are in the middle to upper 60s with dew points in the middle 60s. Overnight lows should drop into the low to middle 60s. Patchy fog is likely, but should be somewhat limited by surface winds around 5mph. Tomorrow, any stronger storms and heavy rain will likely be confined to North Mississippi, especially near the Alabama state line. The flooding threat will also subside. A Cutoff low and associated surface low will deepen/strengthen over north Louisiana, slowly shifting into central Mississippi over the next 24 hours. Rain with embedded thunderstorms will remain likely across most of the Midsouth, but the highest chances will likely remain along and South of the Interstate 40 corridor. Temperatures should be a bit warmer, in the low to middle 70s. Tuesday and Wednesday should be dry as the low shifts into Alabama and a ridge builds in from the West. The ridge should be centered over the Mississippi River Wednesday afternoon. A deep surface low will shift into the Central Plains setting up a strong pressure gradient along and West of the Mississippi River. We may flirt with Wind Advisory Criteria late Wednesday through Thursday though speeds should diminish a bit overnight. The Central Plains surface low will track into Western Iowa Thursday afternoon. This is not typically the most favorable surface low track for severe storms across the Midsouth, but strong South wind ahead of the system should help to boost moisture across the area. Dew points may approach 60 degrees. There also looks to be plenty of energy aloft as a broad subtropical jet of 110-120kt sets up from Southwest Texas across the Middle Mississippi River Valley. Will continue to advertise a low confidence of severe storms Thursday, but confidence may increase quickly over the next 24 hours. Friday looks dry. Highs should be in the mid 60s to low 70s. Another surface low will develop over North Louisiana and track North Northeast over the weekend. A warm front will surge to the North as the cold front approaches from the West. Rain and thunderstorms look likely both Saturday and Sunday. 30 && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF cycle VFR conditions should continue through the evening hours. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move into the forecast area this evening. Another round of showers and thunderstorms will move into the forecast area overnight bringing IFR/MVFR ceilings with it. Conditions should begin to improve across western sections of the forecast area by late Monday afternoon. Winds will be mainly from the south at 5 to 10 knots this evening and then shift to the east by Monday morning. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$