774 FXUS63 KILX 080110 AFDILX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lincoln IL 810 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 810 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019 Updated the forecast to increase the rain chances for this evening, especially in areas near and south of I-72. Two clusters of stronger storms are approaching the area from Missouri. The southern one (near I-72) has been maintaining its strength more, and latest high-res model guidance has it tracking across the south half of the forecast area through midnight, before exiting areas south of I-70 overnight. Temperatures are generally on track. && .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday) ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019 Radar mosaic recently showed development of isolated showers just west of the IL river in Peoria county. Getting breaks in the low clouds over much of central and west central IL at mid afternoon. Some peaks of sunshine along with breezy sw winds gusting 20-30 mph, warming temps into the upper 60s to mid 70s, warmest readings from Macomb and Springfield sw. Temps were in the lower 80s in the St Louis metro area. Fairly moist dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower 60s. A weak surface trof was near the IA/IL border into central MO. Showers and some thunderstorms expected to develop ahead of this surface trof along and east of the IL river late this afternoon and into this evening. SPC has a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms especially east of the IL river where bulk shear values of 30-40 kts and CAPES peak from 1000-2000 J/kg. Lingered a chance of showers and isolated thunderstorm in southeast IL overnight where surface trof tracks thru. Lows tonight range from upper 40s to around 50F nw of the IL river, to the upper 50s in southeast IL. Surface trof nearing Ohio river and close enough to southeast IL on Monday to give isolated showers in far southeast CWA, along with more cloud cover there. Increasing amounts of sunshine over central IL during course of the day Monday, and mild weak westerly flow with highs in the mid 70s, and even some upper 70s possible. .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday) ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019 Quiet weather expected Monday through Tuesday night across central and southeast IL. A cutoff upper level low will translate through the lower MS river valley Monday afternoon and east over the gulf coast states Tuesday, keeping its showers well south of our area. An upper level trof influences the Great Lakes regions with some precipitation chances there and more cooling. Lows Monday night in the mid 40s to around 50F, mildest in southern CWA. Highs Tue in the mid to upper 60s in central IL, with southeast IL near 70F with mostly sunny skies and nw winds 5-15 mph. Upper level ridging into the MS river valley by midday Wed in response to strong upper level trof digging over the Rockies, and strong surface low emerging over western KS. Most models keep warm air advection band of rain showers north of CWA late Tue night thru Wed evening, and only carried small chances of showers over northern CWA north of Lincoln Wed morning. More of a NNE to SSW temp gradient on Wed, with highs ranging from upper 50s/lower 60s ne CWA and upper 60s to near 70F in sw CWA including southeast IL. Strong surface low pressure of 983 mb over west central IA by 18Z/1 pm Thu then weakening to 991 mb over central IA by midnight Thu night, as it pushes a cold front east thru IL Thu evening. Strong southerly winds ahead of this front Wed night and Thu to warm temps back up. Highs Thu in the upper 60s over nw CWA and mid 70s in southeast IL. Have chances of showers/thunderstorms into the IL river valley from I-55 west overnight Wed night and across the area by Thu afternoon and Thu evening. Much of CWA is dry overnight Thu night behind cold front, with just isolated light showers possible northern CWA on Friday. Mostly cloudy skies and much cooler on Friday, with highs in the upper 40s/lower 50s central IL and mid 50s southeast IL. Lows Friday night in the low to mid 30s with highs Sat in the mid to upper 50s as dry wx prevails as high pressure moves across the area Fri night and into the Ohio river valley Sat. Active wx pattern continues as yet another southern stream storm system moves into the southern/mid MS river valley Sat night and Sunday returning good chances of rain showers, with highest rainfall amounts expected in southeast IL. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening) Issued at 621 PM CDT Sun Apr 7 2019 Main concern will be with convective chances through about 06Z. Storms have been on the sparse side so far, but an uptick has been noted across Missouri late this afternoon. High-res model data suggests the impacts from this would be in the KSPI-KCMI corridor from about 02-06Z. Will only maintain the VCTS mention in these areas, as the higher instability will be in this region. Dry conditions expected the remainder of the period, and VFR conditions should prevail. Winds have been switching to the west, as a weak cold front passes through the area. Wind switch about to come through KDEC/KCMI soon, and the gustiness should diminish with sunset. && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ UPDATE...Geelhart SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM...07 AVIATION...Geelhart