178 FXUS61 KCAR 070418 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 1218 AM EDT Sun Apr 7 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front from central Quebec will move across the area late tonight and Sunday morning. High pressure will cross the region late Sunday. Low pressure from the great lakes will approach late Sunday night and Monday and track south the region toward southern Nova Scotia Monday night. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Update...The cold front is approaching the northern international border and will gradually sag southward across the area today. Based on the slow movement of the front, highs should reach over 50F again for Bangor and the coast. However, the cold air continues to ooze southward later Sunday and Sunday night as a cold air damming setup develops. Previous discussion... Ptly to msly cldy SC skies will persist across the N tngt with msly clr to ptly cldy skies Downeast. A weak cold cold front will cross into Nrn ptns of the FA late tngt and slowly work to the Downeast coast by Sunday aftn with no precip and just a band of bkn cldnss. Ovrngt lows will be fairly mild tngt, but hi temps Sun will be held to near seasonal lvls with weak llvl cold advcn in progress under ptly sunny skies. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Potent winter storm on the way Monday. This will be an overrunning precipitation event with a front stalling out over SW Maine and moist mid and upper level westerly flow moving over the cold low-level NE flow and leading to precipitation. Precipitation starts out as snow, developing from west to east around the morning commute on Monday. Sleet and freezing rain becomes a threat Monday afternoon and evening from Moosehead Lake to Bangor and Bar Harbor as some warmer air tries to move in aloft while cold air remains anchored in. Don't expect any excessive ice or sleet amounts, but some modest amounts are possible. Meanwhile, it should stay all snow in the north. Precipitation gradually becomes lighter Monday night and Tuesday with only light snow or mixed precip late Monday night into Tuesday. Overall have high confidence in this storm. Greater than 6 inches of snow in the north looks like a good bet, with potentially up around 10 inches. For Downeast, looking for 3 to 6 inches of snow with some sleet and freezing rain. Some uncertainty as to the northern extent of the snow/sleet/freezing rain line. Also some uncertainty as to the tail end of the storm and how long light snow lingers in Northern Maine. However, do have enough confidence to go ahead and issue winter storm watch from Moosehead Lake, Millinocket, and Houlton north. There's a chance extreme Northern Maine may get a little less snow, with the main banded heavier snow potentially being from Moosehead Lake to Houlton, but not enough confidence in position of potential band to get cute with the watch and leave out extreme Northern Maine. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Another potential system Tuesday night into Wednesday, though most models have this passing just southwest of our area. Went with chance PoPs to cover the possibility of models trending north with the system. High pressure building in for Thursday/Thursday night with quiet weather. Next potential system is late Friday into Saturday. Majority of models have trended much warmer with this system in the past 24 hours and now give us all rain. Before models had a potential snow event. Would like to see another 24 hours worth of model consistency to have high confidence that this will be a rain event. Regardless, looks like precipitation in the late Friday/Saturday period. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR clgs xpctd for our TAF sites, with a pd of MVFR SC clgs possible late tngt into erly Sun morn for Nrn TAF sites behind a cold front. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Widespread IFR or worse on Monday into Monday night with wintry precipitation. Perhaps some improvement to general MVFR Tuesday and Wednesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No marine headlines xpctd for tngt and Sun with winds and wvs sig below SCA. Kept close to a WW3/NWPS guidance blend for fcst wv hts. SHORT TO LONG TERM: Small craft winds and seas likely Monday and Monday evening. Small craft seas may linger into Tuesday, but by Tuesday night below small craft winds and seas are likely. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through late Monday night for MEZ001>006-010. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Duda/VJN Short Term...Foisy Long Term...Foisy Aviation...Duda/VJN/Foisy Marine...Duda/VJN/Foisy