920 FXUS61 KBOX 070208 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 1008 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure over the Northeast USA brings dry weather through Sunday as well as seasonably mild temperatures. Low pressure will push across the Great Lakes into south central Canada Sunday night into Monday, bringing showers as an associated warm front slowly lifts across the region. A cold front will wrap around this exiting low into Monday night, then stalls near or off the south coast. Another wave moves along this front by Tuesday, which may push another round of showers. Should see dry conditions return around mid week. Another warm front may approach late next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... No significant changes to the forecast. High pressure is in control with mostly clear skies and light wind. Mostly clear...because satellite shows areas of thin cirrus moving in from New York State. Temperatures/dew points were adjusted based on observed values at 9 PM. Light wind and dew points in the 30s to around 40, expect a similar range of min temperatures. The low temp/dew point difference may support fog patches later tonight. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... Another quiet and dry day on Sunday under the influence of high pressure as it scoots offshore. We'll see high clouds move in by late morning/afternoon. Even so, should see above average temperatures by early April standards, reaching well into the 60s inland, away from the onshore flow. Along the east coast winds will be light enough that there's the possibility of a seabreeze, in which case we wouldn't fully realize those warm temps. Sunday night we'll see the return of rain to the forecast, though fortunately not until well into the overnight hours, so the weekend should turn out quite nice in all. Sunday evening surface low pressure will move over the Great Lakes region, dragging its surface warm front through southern New England Monday morning. It comes with a good plume of moisture, pulling up PWATs >1" into the northeast. Ample lift is there as well, since we'll have decent isentropic lift along and ahead of the warm front after 6Z with low level speed convergence from a modest LLJ. Rain starts generally after midnight and continues through the morning. The good news with this system is we won't be dealing with any frozen precip. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Highlights... * An area of rain Monday * Another round of showers possible Monday night into Tuesday as a front stalls near or just off the south coast * Cool temperatures return around mid week * Dry conditions on Wednesday, then another warm front may approach with scattered showers possible sometime late Thursday Night into Saturday Details... Through Monday night... A fast-moving mid level flow is expected over southern New England. a surface high pressure should be moving through the Maritimes Monday morning, which will allow a low pressure to move into the Great Lakes. The timing of a warm front will be more problematic due to the high pressure off to the northeast. However, this warm front will be close enough where widespread rain will remain in the forecast. Some drying should develop late in the day, presuming the warm front actually moves north of our region. This is something which will need to be watched over the next day or so. At this time, thinking it may take all day for this front to move into northern New England. Near to slightly above normal temperatures. Tuesday through Wednesday... 06/12Z guidance suite continued to show a broadening range of solutions, particularly with the steering flow aloft. Forecast confidence diminishes, especially with timing. Am thinking a secondary low pressure lingers along a cold front, which slows its passage. Add a potential mid level shortwave to this mix, and the result will be a lingering chance for some showers, which may mix with some wet snow across the higher terrain of Massachusetts late Tuesday night. High pressure builds east across southern New England Wednesday, meaning a drying trend. It will be a bit cooler than seasonal normals with N-NE winds in place. Wednesday night through Thursday night... High pressure should dominate this period, although not as confident in the exact timing. Friday into Saturday... This is the more probably period for some wet weather to return to southern New England. The timing may change, either faster or slower. Kept at least a chance for some showers as another low pressure should move through the Great Lakes late next week. && .AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence. Overnight...VFR. Light W-NW winds. Sunday...VFR. Light SW winds. Increasing clouds. Sunday Night...VFR much of the night. IFR arriving from the W ahead of a front late. KBOS terminal...High confidence in TAF. KBDL terminal...High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. Chance RA. Patchy FG. Monday Night: VFR. Slight chance RA. Patchy BR. Tuesday: VFR. Chance SHRA. Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA. Patchy BR. Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Wednesday Night through Thursday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels... Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Short Term /through Sunday Night/...High confidence. Tonight and Sunday...High pressure moves over the waters. Winds less than 15 knots, and seas less than 5 feet. Sunday night...rain chances after midnight. Increasing S winds less than 15 kts. Seas less than 5 ft. Outlook /Monday through Thursday/... Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain, patchy fog. Local visibility 1 nm or less possible. Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Slight chance of rain, patchy fog. Tuesday through Tuesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, patchy fog. Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk/EVT NEAR TERM...WTB/Belk/BW SHORT TERM...BW LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...WTB/Belk/BW MARINE...WTB/Belk/BW