976 FXUS61 KRLX 061742 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 142 PM EDT Sat Apr 6 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure Saturday. Next system Sunday through Monday. Drier mid week. Frontal system for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1100 AM Saturday... Stratus deck is starting to break up across southern WV and the Ohio valley, which led to mainly minor changes to sky cover grids for the remainder of the morning. Models still have clouds scattering to mostly sunny by the early evening. As of 600 AM Saturday... Only some minor adjustments this morning. Dropped a few locations a degree or two for the max temps today, and increased sky cover this morning. As of 215 AM Saturday... Ridging builds into the region later today. Low clouds should scatter out by this afternoon with drier air pushing in. Very weak short wave moves across the north late this afternoon/early this evening and this may provide enough forcing for a brief shower across the northeast WV mountains, otherwise dry conditions will persist through the period. A warm front starts to lift northward by early Sunday morning from the southwest, but any rainfall should still be well to our south by 12Z Sunday. However, there will be an increase in mid/upper level clouds through early Sunday morning and this could help keep low temperatures well into the 50s overnight across the Southern CWA. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM Saturday... Rain moves in late Sunday with a split system pushing into the Appalachians. Significant low level moisture feed into the CWA from the southern stream influences while progressive low pressure center/cold front moves through the Great Lakes. Slower moving upper level wave/surface low over the Mississippi Valley slows the front through the CWA, especially the mountains. Frontal boundary will exist from our mountains to the aforementioned system, and this explains the longevity of the POPs in the short term. No major chances to the thunder chances Sunday into Monday. Only outlooked for marginal at this time through Sunday night. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 305 AM Saturday... Strong upper low/surface low pressure system develops over the central portion of the country, and fairly quickly coming off the Rockies. However, system becomes stacked and will lose its forward/eastward momentum. Will still push a cold front through the region for late Thursday/Thursday night, likely to have convection associated with it. The question will be the ability of the system to bring in colder air, or if the upper low moving off to the northeast will keep somewhat milder air in the region compared to the last set of operational model guidance temperatures. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 135 PM Saturday... VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites today as the morning's stratus deck breaks and makes way for a stratocumulus deck of 4-5kft this afternoon. Little to no sfc wind has been observed today with a general NW/N/NE drift as weak high pressure to the north modulates a lingering pressure trough over the Ohio Valley. Tonight, winds remain light and rotate clockwise to southeasterly by dawn, then increase out of the south by late morning. VFR prevails across lowland sites, while EKN and BKW flirt with MVFR CIG/VSBY for a time overnight. There is also a small chance for a light rain shower tonight, which may push CIG down to MVFR at EKN. Timing of these is rather tenuous however and confidence is low, so have omitted these from the forecast for now. A warm front crosses Sunday afternoon, accompanied by lowered ceilings, SSW winds, and rain. Although at the end or beyond the TAF period, it's worth mentioning that thunder and heavy downpours are possible. This would likely lead to VSBY and additional CIG restrictions, possibly IFR. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EKN and BKW could see brief restrictions tonight. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 18Z SUNDAY... IFR possible in rain and storms Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...26/MC NEAR TERM...26/MPK/MC SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM...26 AVIATION...MC