311 FXUS64 KLUB 060829 AFDLUB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 329 AM CDT Sat Apr 6 2019 .DISCUSSION... Main focus has been on the ongoing convection early this morning, so only minor adjustments were made to the forecast. We have seen a few strong to severe storms through the early morning hours across the Rolling Plains, though the most intense activity is now shifting east of the area. In addition, a very heavy swath of rain fell across southeast Garza, a good chunk of Kent and southwest King Counties earlier and we are watching the Brazos River quickly climbing just upstream of Lake Alan Henry...which should give a nice early season boost to the lake. Early morning water vapor imagery does show that the instigating impulse is still just approaching via Far West Texas, so addition large scale forcing will spread over much of the CWA over the next several hours. Thus, we will likely see additional convective development west of the departing complex (we are already see a few storms over the southwest South Plains) that will spread from southwest to northeast through the rest of the overnight hours. In fact, some showers and thunderstorms could linger into the morning hours (12Z-18Z) over roughly the eastern half of the CWA. Steep mid- level lapse rates and moderate instability and deep layer shear could even support a few strong to marginally severe storms through the remainder of the overnight hours, though more widespread convection to our south may tend to intercept the moisture/instability fetch and keep storm intensity in check locally. In addition, locally heavy downpours could renew flooding concerns if they manage to track over areas that have already experience intense rainfall. The early morning activity should shift east of the CWA by mid- late morning as drier air spreads across the South Plains on westerly breezes in the wake of the departing shortwave trough. Weak subsidence behind the wave should keep most, if not all, of the FA dry later today. However, the dryline will likely hang up across the far northeastern/eastern counties, and at least some of the high-res NWP do suggest that a rogue storm may develop along the dryline in the late afternoon. Given this, we have decided to include a minimal thunder mention across the far southeast Texas Panhandle and northeast Rolling Plains, from Memphis and Childress to Paducah, this afternoon. If a storm can manage to form, there will be enough instability and wind shear to support a conditional strong/severe risk. The next piece of energy digging into the broader trough will cause its axis to shift eastward tonight/Sunday and this will open the door for a weak front to dip into the area Sunday, complete with northerly breezes, but minimal cooling. We can't completely rule out an isolated shower/storm Sunday afternoon, but most NWP keep a cap in place. Beyond that, progressive upper level ridging early week is still on track to yield to a powerful storm system emerging across the central High Plains mid-week. Many spots may see their warmest temperatures of the season on Tuesday as highs climb well into the 80s, with some lower 90s possible. Attention will then turn to the wind potential on Wednesday. It still looks quite windy locally (MEX and ECE both have sustained wind speeds of 41 knots for KLBB), but the guidance has slowed the system just a bit and if this trend continues maybe we can escape the worst case scenario. Then again, this is probably just wishful thinking. Obviously, these strong winds would also loft blowing dust and raise the fire weather concerns where the green up hasn't fully taken shape yet. Cooler weather will follow this system late week, before the next strong trough likely affects the region and brings increasing thunderstorm chances and/or increasing wind. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 23