234 FXUS61 KRNK 051805 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 205 PM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure over the Mississippi Valley will move east and offshore by Saturday followed by weak high pressure. A complex low pressure system over the Plains Saturday will track into New England and will push a cold front across the Mid Atlantic region on Tuesday. Yet another low pressure system moves from the central United States into the east by the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 145 PM EST Friday... Rainfall winding down from east to west across the CWA early this afternoon, with a few lingering showers across the piedmont over the next few hours before ending completely. Rainfall totals up to 18z (2 PM) generally in the 0.25 to 0.75 inch range with some higher amounts approaching 1.00 inch or more over parts of SW VA. Both Dual-Pol and Legacy radar estimates are higher over parts of New River Valley with 2+ inches in some areas but not corroborated by any rain gages and possibly due to bright-band effects. Either way, no hydrologic impact other than mostly welcome rain. Skies will remain cloudy this afternoon and evening for the most part with patchy drizzle early and some fog possible overnight and temps holding mainly in the 40s. Some in-situ wedging will remain into Saturday morning as the weak surface low off the NC coast slowly drifts eastward into the western Atlantic which may delay clearing until late morning or even early afternoon depending on how strong it is. As a more zonal westerly flow takes over will see generally clearing skies later in the day with a noticeable warmup by mid- to late afternoon, some 15-20F higher than today. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 AM EST Friday... High pressure will track east in zonal flow with the center moving from the Ohio Valley to New York state Saturday. A weak backdoor front will edge southward through the day, residing across northern West Virginia and Virginia in the afternoon. Lingering low level moisture and afternoon heating may help produce isolated showers in the afternoon, but coverage and rainfall amounts only warrant PoPs under 10 percent. Being ahead of the front and under mostly sunny skies, temperatures will warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s across the mountains and low to mid 70s east. High pressure wedges south across the area Saturday night. As the backdoor front pushes across the area, some light showers/sprinkle are possible, but confidence remains less than 10 percent. Despite the passing of the front, temperatures will remain mild in the upper 40s to lower 50s. On Sunday, a warm front will glide over the wedge, increasing the chance for light showers. Some instabilities exist for an isolated thunderstorm in the afternoon, but the areal extent will be limited to where the wedge erodes (the Mountain Empire of southwest Virginia and the Richlands-Bluefield area). Forecasting temperatures in an early spring wedge is tough. I would prefer to lean towards the NAM MOS for highs Sunday. However, coverage of rain not as widespread to put all my Easter eggs in one basket, especially when the GFS/ECM MOS has temperatures two categories higher. With this in mind, I trimmed a few degrees off of previous highs for Sunday, mainly along and east of the Blue Ridge where wedge may hold through the day. For the time being, Sunday afternoon temperatures will be uniform in the lower 70s with mid 60s along the Blue Ridge. The wedge will continue to erode Sunday night as a cold front approaches the region from the west. Temperatures will run around 20F warmer than normal with readings in the upper 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Thursday... Models in fairly good agreement in showing Monday as the most active day of this period as upper trough axis and possible closed low shift from the MS Valley and track eastward into the Southeast Tuesday while weakening and being suppressed by a stronger northern stream shortwave. Given the structure of the upper flow and attendant front, appears we should be enough in the warm sector for instability, though it appears limited, with best chance of thunderstorms staying south across SC/GA/AL. Front should be southeast of us by Tuesday but upper trough axis appears slower and to our west, so still a threat of showers Tuesday. Rainfall amounts on average during this time are going to be in the less than an inch, but some places could receive more due to convection. As we head into midweek, the upper flow flattens with broad ridging in place, so took out or have very little in the way of rain chances Tue night-Thu. Temps during the period will stay above normal. Confidence in overall pattern and best chances of rain Mon-Tue is high. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 130 PM EDT Friday... Precipitation ending this afternoon from west to east with clouds lingering overnight along with patchy fog, especially at favored sites for development. Gradually improving flight conditions on Saturday as the weak low off the coast departs and weak cool air wedge dissipates. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... MVFR/IFR conditions are possible with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms Sunday through Tuesday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AMS NEAR TERM...PC SHORT TERM...RCS LONG TERM...WP AVIATION...AMS/PC