520 FXUS61 KAKQ 051615 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1215 PM EDT Fri Apr 5 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure approaches from the west today. The low will be slow to move across the local area this afternoon through tonight. The low is expected to move off the coast Saturday morning. High pressure builds into the area Saturday night before moving offshore on Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1215 PM EDT Friday... Latest sfc analysis shows high pressure centered eastern New England, with a developing area of low pressure sliding across the Gulf Coast along a stationary front, which is draped across the deep south over to the GA/SC coast. Aloft, midday vis satellite imagery showing low to mid-level moisture pooling along the boundary out ahead of mid-level trough pushing east from the mid-south. Across our local area, light to occasionally moderate rain continues to lift across the area, in association with first slug of overrunning moisture. Have accounted for showers in the forecast through the afternoon, with the radar filling back in over the next few hours as broad swath of overrunning moisture pushes across the area, in association w/the developing sfc low. Rain could be briefly heavy across the south/southeastern portion of the area as the low tracks across the coastal Carolinas this aftn/evening, while occasional -RA/DZ continues across the nrn two-thirds of the area). We have nudged highs down slightly per obs, with maxima only in the mid-upper 50s to around 60 F over the Piedmont (where RA will arrive earliest) and on the Lower Ern Shore (due to persistent onshore flow). Elsewhere, expect highs in the low- mid 60s. Have PoPs quickly ramping up to 70-100% in most areas during the next few hours. While the upper shortwave pushes offshore this evening, moisture (mainly below 700 mb) will be lingering along the coast (especially SE) as the sfc low is progged to move offshore of the NC OBX late tonight. Therefore, expect numerous showers across the SE tonight, with continued occasional -ra/dz points north. Maintained likely PoPs for coastal SE zones through 06-09z Sat, with slight chc- chc PoPs inland (lowest in the Piedmont). Lows tonight range from the upper 40s NW to 50-55 F elsewhere. Nudged QPF up across the southeast through 12z, with QPF ranges from 0.3-0.4" N to 0.5-0.75" over NE NC. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 AM EDT Friday... Skies remain mostly cloudy Sat AM (with a few lingering showers near the coast) giving way to partial clearing by aftn (especially inland). The sfc low very slowly moves offshore on Sat, with at least some low-level moisture lingering along the immediate coast through perhaps the aftn. There is a bit of uncertainty about the forecast on Sat, as the NAM/ECMWF keep clouds (and isolated showers) near the coast through the aftn. The GFS moves the low further offshore, allowing for partial clearing in all areas by aftn. For now, lowered highs a bit in coastal zones (mainly in the 60s). Highs Sat range from the low-mid 70s inland. If the NAM/ECMWF solution verifies for Sat, highs may struggle to get out of the 50s along the immediate coast. High pressure builds in Sat night and moves offshore on Sun. Partly sunny and warm on Sunday with highs mainly in the mid/upper 70s well inland and mid 60s to lower 70s near the coast. Could see a few aftn/evening showers in the west as SW flow aloft brings increasing moisture and lifts a warm front through the region. Kept PoPs aob 20% on Sun. A few showers could linger into Sun night, but the bulk of the rain likely stays W of the region until Monday. Mild Sun night, with lows in mid 50s along the coast/around 60 well inland. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 430 PM EDT Thursday... A southwest flow will continue over the east coast Monday and Tuesday ahead of an approaching trough that will bring a low pressure systems across the Great Lakes. This will bring rain to the area Monday and Tuesday ahead of a cold front that will move through Tuesday. Slight chance of thunderstorms were kept in for Monday with slight instability and temperatures in the upper 70s Monday afternoon. High pressure will move in from the north for Wednesday and Thursday ahead of another low pressure system that will increase Pops Thursday nights. Temperatures will remain warm Monday and Tuesday with highs in the upper 70s. Temperatures cool behind the cold front on Wednesday. Guidance is showing a wedge building in with a high centered over New England Thursday. Temperatures could be lower than currently in the forecast. && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 650 AM EDT Friday... CIGS have lowered to 5-10k feet across the area as RA has spread just to the W of RIC. CIGS continue to slowly lower this morning as sfc low pressure lifts NE through the TN/OH Valley and spreads moisture into the region. SHRAs increase from W to E during the next few hours, eventually impacting all terminals by 15-18z (although RA will begin at RIC during the next couple of hours). Prevailing CIGS eventually drop to MVFR levels from W to E during the late morning- aftn. Prevailing VSBYS will mainly be VFR/MVFR in the SHRAs. Expect some breaks in the rain throughout the day, although it will be raining for much of the time. Widespread SHRAs are expected to continue tonight-early Sat AM over the southeastern third of the CWA as the area of low pressure approaches the NC Outer Banks. Elsewhere, expect only ISOLD-SCT SHRAs tonight. CIGS will likely drop to IFR levels between 00-06z Sat at all terminals. In addition, guidance is hinting at the potential for BR/FG after midnight at all terminals except ECG. E-SE winds remain around 10 kt during the day today (w/ a few higher gusts possible near the coast). Outlook...Rain chances end by early Sat AM over RIC, but a few lingering SHRAs are possible near the coast during the first part of the day on Sat. Partial clearing/improving CIGS expected on Sat as low pressure moves offshore. VFR conditions likely return to all terminals by Sat evening. Mainly VFR conditions expected through Sun. && .MARINE... As of 330 AM EDT Friday... Weak low pressure approaches from the W today as high pressure lingers over New England. This area of low pressure pushes across the Mid-Atlantic coast tonight, and then slowly moves offshore Saturday. A SE wind will increase to 10-15kt today, lighten tonight as the low tracks across the coast, and then become N to NE 10-15kt Saturday as the low pulls offshore. Seas will initially be 2- 3ft today, and then build to 3-4ft later today into tonight. Weak high pressure builds into the region Sunday and moves offshore Sunday night. The wind will be E Sunday morning, SE Sunday aftn, and S Sunday night with speeds aob 15kt. Seas will generally be 2-3ft during this time period, with 1-2ft waves in the Bay. A cold front approaches from the W Monday and drops into the region Monday night. The wind will become SW 10-20kt ahead of the cold front, with seas building to 3-4ft N and potentially ~5ft out near 20nm, and remaining 2-3ft S. The initial cold front stalls over the region late Monday night into Tuesday, with another cold front forecast to push through the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ERI/LKB NEAR TERM...ERI/MAM SHORT TERM...ERI/LKB LONG TERM...CP AVIATION...ALB/ERI MARINE...AJZ