620 FXUS63 KDLH 051449 AAB AFDDLH Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Duluth MN 949 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday) Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 Warm air advection has led to widespread clouds and areas of precipitation, from drizzle or light rain to light snow and freezing drizzle. Most areas were seeing a surface temperature of 32 or greater, but there were a few locations below freezing. Any snow or ice accumulation this morning will be quite limited and surface temperatures will slowly warm through the morning hours. We will likely see areas of fog and drizzle this morning then spotty light rain or drizzle this afternoon with plenty of clouds remaining. A cold front will move southeast into northern Minnesota this afternoon and that along with low level FGEN will lead to the afternoon light rain or drizzle. 850MB temperatures from 0 to 5C will move over the region and highs today will range from the mid forties over northern Minnesota to the lower to mid fifties over our southern zones. A lull in precipitation chances will occur for much of tonight but a warm front will lift north and be just south of the Northland at 12Z Saturday. Warm air advection over the warm front will lead to increasing rain chances from south to north late tonight into Saturday, with chances highest over far eastern Minnesota and northwest Wisconsin. Rainfall in over northwest Wisconsin and far eastern Minnesota will range from around two tenths to four tenths. Easterly winds will occur Saturday keeping areas around Lake Superior cooler. We have highs in the thirties close to Lake Superior, and mid forties to lower fifties inland. .LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 403 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 The extended period starts out with the Northland still under the influence of the warm front to the south across central Minnesota and Wisconsin as low pressure advances from the South Dakota/Nebraska area. Plenty of moisture and lift will be available to give the Northland clouds and rain Saturday night and Sunday. There will be strong moisture advection with boundary layer mixing ratios of 6-8 g/kg being advected into the Northland on a 30 knot low level jet over the front. So a large swath of rain is expected to cover the region. It will become quite soggy with rainfall totals of almost an inch by Monday morning. The low will move to the east Sunday night while high pressure builds in to provide clearing skies. However, this will be short- lived as a compact mid-level short-wave and a series of Canadian low pressures moves across northern Minnesota and brings a chance of rain and maybe a bit of mixed precipitation mainly over northern Minnesota through Wednesday. There will be a potent storm system moving into the southern periphery of the Northland for late next week, with precipitation types generally a rain/snow mixture. The models have come together to bring a swath of precipitation into northern Wisconsin beginning Wednesday night and continuing Friday. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning) Issued at 657 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 IFR conditions due to low ceilings and fog will prevail over the northland for most of the forecast period. There may be a few hours between 22z to 02z when conditions may be MVFR. && .MARINE... Issued at 949 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 Southwest winds will prevail today across western Lake Superior, between 5 to 15 knots. Due to the favorable fetch, the strongest winds are expected along the North Shore, mainly for the nearshore waters from Taconite Harbor north towards Grand Marais and Grand Portage. Winds will generally be light to calm tonight before turning more northeasterly during the day Saturday as an area of low pressure approaches from the southwest. This could lead to Small Craft Advisory conditions, particularly near the Twin Ports and along the North Shore, where building waves around four feet will be possible. The largest waves will be most likely Saturday evening into Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 49 35 42 37 / 60 50 60 70 INL 45 28 48 36 / 30 10 20 50 BRD 57 39 53 46 / 20 40 50 70 HYR 51 38 54 47 / 20 60 70 60 ASX 51 35 47 39 / 40 50 70 60 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. LS...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Melde LONG TERM...CLC AVIATION...CLC MARINE...JTS