643 FXUS64 KSJT 050925 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 425 AM CDT Fri Apr 5 2019 .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) An upper level trough will be approaching West Texas during the day today, with a surface low developing in the lee of the Rockies in southeast Colorado. This will result in a strengthening moist southerly flow, with surface dew points rising into the mid to upper 50s during the day. Looking like another warm day today, with highs in the low to mid 80s, although it could get a little hotter than this if there are less clouds than expected. The dry- line looks to set up over the Permian Basin this afternoon, and increasing lift from the nearby trough could spark some isolated thunderstorms by late afternoon. Our extreme western counties, roughly west of a Sonora to Robert Lee line, seem to be the favored locations for early storm development, although some hi- res models develop storms farther east into Concho, Runnels, Menard and McCulloch counties. Hi-res models indicate thunderstorms increasing in coverage this evening and then becoming widespread during the late night hours into early Saturday morning as the trough axis moves into West Texas. Instability of 1500+ J/KG and 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 KT indicate the potential for some strong to severe storms. Latest SPC convective outlook has pretty much the entire forecast area in a slight risk, with large hail and damaging winds being the main threats, although an isolated tornado or two will be possible as well. Locally heavy rainfall could also be a threat, with local rainfall amounts of 1.5+ inches possible, although most locations should see around 0.25-0.75 inches. Overnight lows will be in the 56- 63 degree range. SJH && .LONG TERM... (Saturday into Thursday) Showers and thunderstorms associated with Fridays nighttime complex will be still moving through Saturday morning. SPC has a slight risk of severe storms east of a Haskell...Abilene... Junction line. The main threats will be damaging winds and hail. In the afternoon, drier southwest air will move in, ending rain chances in western sections of the Big Country and Concho Valley. However, a slight chance to chance of thunderstorms...will still be possible Saturday afternoon...from eastern sections of the Big Country southward to Brady and Junction and areas eastward. The afternoon storms will be working off remmant moisture and increasing instability...as the approaching upper trough from the west slows down and deepens. The upper trough will move over Saturday night. For Sunday, most areas will be dry, but there still the potential for some wraparound moisture and a few showers across Haskell and Throckmorton counties...along with southeast counties from Junction to San Saba. More quiet weather is expected for the work week with zonal flow aloft. Temperatures will be on the warm side, despite a weak cold front Sunday night and Monday. Highs in the lower 90s possible Tuesday and Wednesday before a cold front cools highs back into the 70s to lower 80s Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 82 59 79 57 / 10 80 40 10 San Angelo 86 59 81 56 / 20 80 30 10 Junction 87 62 82 57 / 20 60 50 20 Brownwood 83 61 79 56 / 10 70 70 20 Sweetwater 83 57 79 55 / 20 80 20 5 Ozona 84 58 80 56 / 20 80 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SJH/04