846 
FXUS65 KFGZ 042138
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
238 PM MST Thu Apr 4 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Skies tonight will gradually clear. Clouds and shower
chances return from Friday through Saturday afternoon. High 
pressure will bring a strong warming trend for Sunday and Monday. 
Much of northern Arizona could see gusty conditions Tuesday before
the start to an unsettled weather pattern begins Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The Rest of Today...Partly to mostly cloudy skies will begin to
clear first in Yavapai County and last in the Four Corners region.
Fair weather will be predominant through this evening and tonight.

Friday & Saturday...Fair weather will persist into Friday morning,
although cloud coverage will increase again ahead of some showery
precipitation. High-resolution model guidance continues to 
initiate shower development in western Yavapai and Coconino 
counties during the late afternoon tomorrow. Shower coverage will 
be mainly limited to areas of high terrain and be isolated to 
scattered in coverage. Precipitation totals of less than one-tenth
of an inch are forecast for the entirety of this system. Snow 
levels are around 8,000 feet MSL. A gradual clearing from west to 
east will occur Saturday as the showers move out of Arizona.

Sunday - Tuesday...Model guidance continues to show good agreement
on a ridge of high pressure setting up over southern California
and the desert Southwest by Sunday. This ridge will bring northwest
flow aloft and a warming trend that will last into Tuesday. High
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday could be 10-15 degrees
Fahrenheit above normal. As models continue to indicate another 
trough passing over Arizona beginning late Tuesday, wind gusts out
ahead of the trough up to 50 mph are possible. The potential for 
these winds will continue to be monitored with upcoming forecasts.

Wednesday...Chances of precipitation were retained for far northern
Arizona, as this could be the start to a period of unsettled weather.

&&

.AVIATION...For the 00Z Package...Through 18Z Fri - VFR conditions 
persist under mid and high level clouds. Sfc winds S-SW 10-15 kts 
with gusts 20-25 kts, decrease after 01Z this evening, but remaining 
locally gusty northeast of the higher terrain. After 18Z 
Friday - cloud decks lower to 5-8 kft agl, with a isolated to 
scattered light rain showers developing. Aviation discussion 
not updated for TAF amendments. 

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A trough will cross the state Friday and Saturday, 
bringing slightly cooler temperatures and a chance for light 
showers. Widespread wetting rain is unlikely. Breezy southwest wind 
Friday will shift to westerly by Saturday. 

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry weather and a warming trend can be 
expected with daytime temperatures reaching 10-15 degrees above 
normal by Monday and Tuesday. Generally light winds Sunday and 
Monday, with strong southwest winds and low humidity likely on 
Tuesday as a cold front approaches. 

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...NL
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE...JJ


For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff