066 FXUS61 KRLX 041030 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 630 AM EDT Thu Apr 4 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front pushes through today into tonight. Low pressure crosses Friday. Warm weekend on tap, but another system approaches Sunday, and then crosses Monday into Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 630 AM Thursday... Forecast on track. As of 255 AM Thursday... A warm front will move into the area today, setting up from west to east across southern Ohio and central WV by this afternoon. It will than move north of the area later this afternoon and tonight. This warm front is starved for moisture, so will only bring mid and high level cloudiness across. Very dry air will remain in place, aided by southeast downslope flow. South to southeast flow aloft increases this afternoon, with a deep mixed layer. So winds could become gusty, especially on ridges and hilltops and south of the warm front, where mixing is most realized to the surface. Fire danger could be somewhat enhanced again today, as fuels remain dry. Will keep an HWO mention, but lack of sustained winds should again preclude red flag conditions. As a low pressure system approaches from the west, rain is likely to overspread the area overnight tonight. Continued downslope south to southeast wind should keep coverage lower and start time later over the central and northern WV lowlands and western slopes of the mountains. this will keep rainfall amounts lowest there. Rainfall amounts will be highest over southwest portions of the area, where a theta e feed will develop on 40 kts southerly low level flow. Elevated convection and thunder could occur given narrow elevated CAPE, but h85 dew points climbing just over 5 C and h85 theta e values climbing to just above 310 K will not support much, especially given meager slantwise instability. Blended in bias corrected and high res forecast data for temperatures which, after a ridge valley split again early this morning, reflect the baroclinic zone associated with the warm front by afternoon, with highs above normal south of it. Lows tonight will still reflect this baroclinic zone, although they will be above normal throughout the area. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 350 AM Thursday... Showers taper off from west to east during the day Friday as the upper level system gets shoved into the Atlantic and surface high pressure builds down from the Great Lakes region. The transient high will allow for the start of the weekend to be dry with mostly sunny conditions. The same cannot be said for the second half of the weekend due to the next upper level disturbance ejecting from the Central Plains. Showers will be entering the western outskirts of the forecast region by daybreak Sunday. The CWA will become planted within the warm sector of the approaching surface low pressure through the day Sunday, allowing for deeper moisture and instability to percolate overhead. Areas west of I-77/I-79 will occupy the region for the greatest potential of seeing thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. Temperatures start off around normal Friday then surges up to 10-15 degrees above normal by Sunday in response to increased southwest flow ushering in warmer temperatures through the progression of the weekend. The lowlands will have a shot at reaching 80 degrees as a high Sunday, which lines up accordingly with the greatest thunderstorm potential. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 400 AM Thursday... Given the assortment of disparity between model guidance heading into next week, confidence remains low with this portion of the forecast. Showers and thunderstorms continue on Monday as the surface low wanders towards the Great Lakes. Winds remain out of the south through Tuesday considering a lack of a frontal passage. Until this happens, showers and isolated thunderstorms remain feasible. This is where the differing model solutions come into play. Continued with a blend of the global model suite to help arbitrate a reasonable time frame for the cold frontal passage, diminishing showers out of the region by late Tuesday night. High pressure will then build back in for midweek. Temperatures will drop back down to near normal after Sunday and remain that way through much of the work week. && .AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 630 AM Thursday... A warm front will move into the area today, setting up from west to east across southern Ohio and central WV by this afternoon. it will than move north of the area later this afternoon and tonight. This warm front is starved for moisture, so will only bring mid and high level cloudiness across, and conditions will remain VFR through the period. A low pressure system will approach from the west overnight tonight, with rain overspreading the area 06Z-10Z. This will start to lower ceilings and visibility, with MVFR ceiling possible BKW toward 12Z Friday, and MVFR visibility in rain developing 08Z-11Z. Surface flow will be light southeast through the period, except becoming south to southeast and a bit gusty on ridges and some hilltops this afternoon. Gusts were coded only at BKW for this reason. Light to moderate west flow aloft early this morning will become light south later this morning, increase to light to moderate south to southeast late this afternoon, and then become moderate south tonight. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Winds may be stronger and gustier than forecast later this afternoon and tonight, especially south of the warm front. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 EDT 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z FRIDAY... IFR in rain Friday morning. Stratus and fog possible Friday night into Saturday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TRM/MEK NEAR TERM...TRM SHORT TERM...MEK LONG TERM...MEK AVIATION...TRM