510 FXUS61 KCAR 040110 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 910 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Intensifying low pressure will exit across the Maritimes tonight through Thursday. High pressure will build across the region later Thursday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 9:10 pm update: Isolated snow showers are moving across areas from Baxter State Park north to the Saint John Valley. Isolated rain or snow showers will move across Down East areas late this evening. It will dry out after midnight, but with upper level energy moving across far northern areas an isolated snow shower is still possible. The wind is now starting to pick up across western areas with wind gusts to 40 mph at Greenville. The wind remains light in most areas across the eastern half of the FA, but it too will pick up overnight. Made some minor adjustments to the forecast elements based on the latest observations, radar, and satellite. Previous discussion: Intensifying low pressure will track across the Gulf of Saint Lawrence to Labrador tonight through Thursday, drawing a cold front across the region this evening. Scattered snow/rain showers will accompany the cold front early tonight. Scattered to isolated snow showers will then persist across the north and mountains overnight. Otherwise, expect mostly/partly cloudy skies north, decreasing clouds Downeast, in the wake of the cold front. Gusty winds could accompany the cold front early tonight, then persist overnight with gusts up to around 40 mph possible. The pressure gradient between the Labrador low and high pressure to the southwest, along with diurnal mixing, will support west to northwest winds gusting to 45 to 50 mph Thursday. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the entire forecast area Thursday. The strong winds, thawing ground and any heavy wet snow left on branches could topple trees leading to scattered power outages. Otherwise, expect partly/mostly cloudy skies along with isolated snow showers across the north and mountains with partly cloudy/mostly clear skies Downeast. Low temperatures tonight will range from around 20 to the mid 20s north, to the mid 20s interior Downeast, with around 30 along the Downeast coast. High temperatures Thursday will range from around 30 to the lower 30s north, to around 40 to the lower 40s Downeast. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Strong high pressure is expected to build in from the west Thursday night then crest over the region Friday. Low pressure will then move in from the west Friday night and spread precipitation over the region late Friday night into Saturday. The precipitation is expected to be mostly in the form of snow with the exception of the coast Friday night then change to rain from south to north during the day Saturday. Will use surface temperature for precipitation type and snow ratio grids for snow accumulation. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Strong high pressure is expected to build in from the northwest Saturday night and remain over the region into Monday. Low pressure is then expected to move to the south of New England on Tuesday then move across the Gulf of Maine on Wednesday. This system may bring rain to the area on Monday into Wednesday. && .AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: Variable conditions, ranging from LIFR to VFR will occur across the north and mountains late this evening. VFR/MVFR conditions are then expected overnight. VFR conditions are expected at the Down east terminals, but brief reductions to MVFR possible late this evening in any isolated rain or snow showers. Occasional MVFR conditions are possible across the north and mountains Thursday, with VFR conditions across the remainder of the region. West to northwest winds will gust up to around 35 knots, then gust up to 40 to 45 knots Thursday. SHORT TERM: Expect VFR conditions Friday. MVFR/IFR conditions Saturday. VFR conditions are expected Monday. MVFR conditions are expected Tuesday. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: A Gale Warning is in effect through Thursday. SHORT TERM: Have used the Nam to initialize winds. For Waves: Southwesterly swell is expected to subside Thursday night into the day Friday. A new southerly fetch is expected to develop Friday night into Saturday with waves building to around 8 feet/8 seconds early Saturday then subsiding Saturday afternoon. Southerly swell is expected to dominate on Sunday. Total Water Level: Expect a significant negative surge Thursday as strong off-shore winds continue. Surge guidance has been verifying well so will keep the Base Tide Anomaly near zero. In Bangor will limit minimum low tide to 3.3 feet due to increased run-off of fresh water. && .HYDROLOGY... Rivers and streams continue to show rises due to the snowmelt. The Penobscot River, south of West Enfield is open. Some ice remains across the northern reach north of West Enfield. The Mattawamkeag River has opened up significantly with some ice still to move out, but not expecting any major flooding problems. The Piscataquis River has ice across most of its reach, but the ice is rotting and some sections are opening up such as at Blanchard and in the Milo region. Small ice jams remain in place on the Pleasant River in Milo and on the Piscataquis River in Dover-Foxcroft. Further north, continued gradual melt has allowed ice to thin and weaken some on the Aroostook and even on portions of the St. John River in Madawaska. Latest reports are that the St. John and Allagash remain iced in from Frenchville to the Dickey line. Open water was noted on the Aroostook River in Ashland and Presque Isle, but still a lot of ice cover from Washburn to Crouseville and from Caribou to Fort Fairfield. The river gage at Washburn remains at action stage and continues slowly rising. Pictures taken Tuesday afternoon show the river still iced in with some channels of water along the banks. It appears that the gage reading could be affected by the ice and pooling of water around the ice near the sensor. Officials reported no flooding. Will continue to monitor river and stream levels, but at this time there are no immediate concerns. Cooler temps tonight should help to keep things stable. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Wind Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM EDT Thursday for MEZ001>006- 010-011-015>017-029>032. MARINE...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT Thursday for ANZ050>052. && $$ Near Term...CB/Norcross Short Term...Mignone Long Term...Mignone Aviation...CB/Norcross/Mignone Marine...CB/Norcross/Mignone Hydrology...Hewitt