335 FXUS62 KMHX 032334 AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 734 PM EDT Wed Apr 3 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in from the west tonight then slide offshore Thursday. A weak cold front will move through the area Friday into early Saturday then dissipate. Another cold front will approach from the west early next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... As of 730 PM Wednesday...Minimal changes needed for the evening update, mainly capturing T/Td trends. Very quiet weather as high pres to the SW becomes centered over the area tonight. Skies will remain clr thru the evening then may see some sct mid/high clouds late espcly nrn tier where mdls show some increase in moisture. Excellent radiational cooling conditions and went near or below cooler guidance with lows around 40 cooler inland spots to mid/upr 40s beaches. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/... As of 240 PM Wednesday...High pres will grad drift offshore with cont dry weather. May see some sct clouds espcly nrn tier as some mid/upr lvl moisture crosses. With plenty of sun...increasing thicknesses and low lvl flow become SE expect mild highs low/mid 70s inland to 65 to 70 beaches. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 345 PM Wed...Unsettled weather returns Friday, then a dry and warm weekend expected. More rain is expected early next week ahead of an approaching cold front. Thursday Night through Friday...High pressure extending into the Carolinas from the western Atlantic Thursday night will give way to a shortwave and weak low on Friday. ECM ensemble mean continues to be consistent with high pop, relatively low QPF event, and has support from the operational ECM/CMC. GFS had been a drier outlier though is now coming around to the wetter pattern as well. Thur night will remain dry, though rain showers quickly move in from the west Friday. Have bumped up pops to 70-90%. Prcip ends from west to east during the night Fri night. Saturday through Sunday...High pres reestablishes itself from the wrn Atlantic this coming weekend with building hts/thicknesses leading to warm and increasingly humid air mass. High reach to around 80 interior zones, with 70s on the coast. Lows in the mid 50s inland to around 60 beaches. Monday through Wednesday...03/12Z global (CMC/GFS/ECM/UKMET) continue disagreement on pattern evolution with regards to next trough/cold front approaching the SE CONUS. Will continue to highlight slght chc to chc pops on Monday, with a general high chc pop trend Tue through mid week. It will continue to be warm and humid, with both highs and lows above climo, 75-80, and upr 50s/low 60s, respectively. This general pattern is also supported by ensemble spaghetti plots and means, with lower than normal hts across the Ohio Valley and higher than avg across the wrn Atlantic. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Short Term /through Thursday/... As of 730 PM Wednesday...Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. High pres will build across tonight and offshore Thu. May see some mid/high clouds skirt nrn tier later tonight into Thu, otherwise mainly clr skies expected. With light to calm winds late tonight temps wl likely reach dewpts and some patchy shallow fog cant be ruled out but guidance keep conditions VFR through the period. Long Term /Thursday night through Monday/... As of 345 PM Wed...VFR conditions Thu night give way to sub VFR and rain on Friday as low pressure traverses. VFR is expected to return Sat as high pres ridges back in, and continue through Sun. && .MARINE... Short Term /Tonight and Thu/... As of 6 PM Wednesday...Buoy 13 E of Oregon Inlet continues to report seas to 7 ft, so have extended the SCA through 10 PM and will drop when conditions warrant. Winds now light across region as high pres is centered just to the S. The high will become centered near the coast overnight then drift offshore Thu with light winds thru Thu morn become SE 5 to 10 kt in the aftn. Lingering swell from yesterdays deep low will keep seas elevated nrn wtrs so cont SCA N of Cape Hat thru early evening. Seas then expected to subside to 1 to 3 feet late tonight and Thu. Long Term /Thursday night through Saturday/... As of 345 PM Wed...High pressure will give way to weak low on Friday. Winds increase again Friday as the gradient tighten with SE winds 15-25 knots, while NWPS continues to indicate SCA conditions possible. Winds are expect to veer from W to N around 10 knot or less Sat, then finally becoming E Sunday afternoon. Seas will subside to 2-4 ft this weekend. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for AMZ150- 152. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MHX NEAR TERM...RF/SK SHORT TERM...RF LONG TERM...TL/BM AVIATION...SK/TL MARINE...RF/SK/TL