967 FXUS64 KSJT 032319 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 619 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ Look for challenging flight weather to redevelop again this evening. Returning stratus will create MVFR ceilings, at all West Central Texas terminals, during the next 6 hours. Then, another cold front will move into West Central Texas, from the northwest, and bring drier air and VFR conditions, to all terminals, by 18Z. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 307 PM CDT Wed Apr 3 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Thursday) Clouds have gradually cleared across the western portions of West Central Texas, allowing temperatures to climb into the 70s. South winds continue and had kept low level moisture in place, with dewpoints holding in the 50s. An approaching shortwave will pass across the Panhandle and Oklahoma later tonight, with a few storms possible ahead of it. Best lift will be north of the area, but a few storms possible as far north as the northern Big Country from Abilene northward. A few warm advection showers also possible across the Heartland and Hill Country as well tonight, mainly east of a Brownwood to Brady to Junction line. Cloud cover returns tonight and will combine with the southerly low level moisture flow to keep overnight lows up well into the 50s and perhaps even lower 60s. Passage of the shortwave late tonight will veer winds around to the west and northwest for Thursday. Drier conditions and a little downslope flow will allow afternoon highs to climb well into the low to mid 80s for most areas. LONG TERM... (Thursday Night through Wednesday) The primary item in the long term part of the forecast is with the possibility of strong or severe thunderstorms Friday evening and Friday night, and with rain chances Friday night and Saturday. An upper trough will move east across the Desert Southwest and northern Mexico on Friday. Return flow will begin to develop across our area on Friday, but the better moisture will be slow to arrive until Friday evening and Friday night. Our temperatures will be warm and above normal on Friday, with highs expected to be mostly in the mid 80s with a decent amount of sunshine. The models continue to have differences with the details of the subsequent track of the upper trough, and with the timing of associated convection in our area. The GFS has initial development between 4 PM and 7 PM Friday just north of the Big Bend with a lead wave ahead of the main trough. The GFS blossoms convection over our area Friday night in association with this lead wave, and indicates chances for additional development into the day Saturday. Most of the Saturday convection looks to be in the morning, ahead of a dryline which the GFS advances east across our area during the day. The NAM has most of the shower/thunderstorm activity occurring Friday overnight into Saturday morning, with the dryline slower to advance east into our area. The ECMWF looks similar to the NAM with most of the convection late Friday night and Saturday morning. While all of the models keep the main trough axis west of our area through Saturday, the ECMWF has a closed low developing over our southeastern counties on Sunday afternoon. Taking into account these and collaborative considerations, along with continued uncertainty in the details, we are carrying the highest rain chances Friday night, shifting into the eastern half of our area Saturday. Rain chances trail off from the west by Saturday night, but still carrying low PoPs across our eastern counties. The SPC Day 3 Convective Outlook has Marginal risk for severe storms across our forecast area. The strongest instability and potential for supercells appears to be in in the southwestern part of our area (vicinity of Crockett County) Friday evening. The scenario suggests expanding coverage of elevated convection across our area Friday night with mainly a severe hail risk. With substantial increase in precipitable water values to 1.5 inches, locally heavy rainfall also looks possible. Above normal and warm daytime temperatures to continue through the weekend and into the first half of next week. Cold frontal passage on Sunday looks to be weak, with temperatures only slightly cooler across our northern counties. Very warm temperatures will be possible Tuesday and especially Wednesday of next week, with southwest winds on Tuesday and west-southwest winds on Wednesday. Dry conditions are indicated with a strengthening 850mb thermal ridge. Highs could be around 90 in parts of our area Tuesday, and in the 90s on Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 60 82 56 85 / 10 0 0 5 San Angelo 58 85 56 88 / 10 0 0 10 Junction 61 87 57 86 / 20 0 0 10 Brownwood 58 84 56 85 / 20 0 0 0 Sweetwater 57 81 54 84 / 10 0 0 5 Ozona 58 84 56 85 / 10 0 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$