361 FXUS61 KRNK 022147 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 547 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in behind a departing coastal storm, ending precipitation east of the Blue Ridge and bringing warmer weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through the middle of the workweek. Our next chance of precipitation arrives on Friday as another front approaches the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 530 PM EDT Tuesday... Coastal storm centered near Cape Hatteras is moving to the northeast. Clouds are being cast as far west as Highway 29 with primarily rain ongoing from Farmville east to the coast. Skies have cleared from the Virginia Highlands, south through the Roanoke and New River Valleys, and into the western piedmont of NC. At the moment, winds are relatively light with no substantial pressure gradient. As the coastal storm gains latitude, High pressure will begin to build into the forecast area overnight. This will result in increasing wind speeds, occasionally gusty for Wednesday. A cold front over the Great Lakes and western Ohio Valley is forecast to move east overnight, passing through the northern CWA Wednesday, and then drifting south, then southwest (backdoor style) across the piedmont Wednesday evening. This will result in the northwesterly winds trending more northerly with time, then northeasterly by evening. Expect a chilly night tonight with lows generally in the 30s. However temperatures will rebound nicely on Wednesday with highs ranging from the upper 60s east of the Blue Ridge to the upper 50s to lower 60s west. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EST Tuesday... Wednesday night high pressure will be centered over the region. As we progress into Thursday, the center of this high will shift to off the southeast U.S. coast, and an upper level shortwave trough will make progress into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. An associated warm front will lift north through the area by Thursday evening. Behind this feature notably higher dew point air is expected to advect into the region, just in advance of the approaching upper system. The result will be a trend towards milder temperatures, increasing cloud cover, and rain overspreading the area Thursday night. By Friday, the axis of the upper system and an associated weak surface cold front will cross the area, trending the precipitation to scattered showers associated with this system. By Friday night, the bulk of the area is expected to be precipitation- free, with perhaps some lingering weak upslope induced showers across the southeast West Virginia mountains heading into early Saturday morning. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will be around normal Wednesday night into Thursday, but trend to reading averaging about five degrees above normal by Friday into Friday night. Confidence in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1245 PM EST Tuesday... This portion of the forecast is continuing to be shaping up to be an active one. For the start of the weekend, an upper high is expected to be positioned off the southeast coast of the U.S., all while an upper trough/low develops across the Central Plains states. Both of these features will lead towards increase southwest flow across our region that will have its origins off the Gulf of Mexico. The result will be plenty of moisture advecting into our region. For Saturday, the best dynamics aloft will still be to our west nearest the developing upper trough/low. However, enough moisture and instability will across our region for some morning isolated to scattered shower, with more of these continuing into the afternoon, especially near and along the crest of the Blue Ridge. An isolated thunderstorm or two also cannot be ruled out. By Saturday evening, with the heating of the day passed, the the main system still to our west, precipitation is expected to wane to isolated showers and best during the evening. Late Saturday, additional isolated to scattered showers may return to western parts of the area in advance of the now stronger upper trough/low positioned near the mid to upper Mississippi River Valley. On Sunday, showers are expected to increase across the area as the upper trough/low heads into the Great Lakes region and its associated surface reflection makes its way toward or into the western parts of the area. Its push will be curtailed by the development of an even stronger upper low over the Central Plains states. It will be this second, and stronger, feature that will keep a decent chance of at least scattered showers in the forecast Monday into Tuesday, with the best thunderstorm potentials during the afternoon of both Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average ten to fifteen degrees above normal Saturday through Monday with temperatures closer to five degrees above normal for Tuesday. Forecast confidence for this potion of the forecast is moderate. && .AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday... Low pressure moving up the coast will keep a chance of rain/snow mix with some MVFR conditions at KLYH and KDAN through the first part of the valid period before precipitation pulls out toward 00Z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions all sites through Wednesday. High pressure will build in behind the departing low and bring some gusty conditions. May see some gusts along/west of the Blue Ridge overnight, but main period of gusts will be after daybreak Wednesday once heating has mixed the boundary layer. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR flight categories will continue into at least Thursday before next weather system, and associated scattered precipitation, brings next threat for some MVFR flight restrictions Thursday night or Friday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS/PM SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/MBS