926 FXUS61 KRNK 021852 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 252 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build in behind a departing coastal storm, ending precipitation east of the Blue Ridge and bringing warmer weather to the Appalachians and central mid Atlantic region through the middle of the workweek. Our next chance of precipitation arrives on Friday as another front approaches the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday... Locations west of the Blue Ridge have seen a good amount of sun today. However, low pressure moving up the coast has pushed wet snow or a rain/snow mix into the region east of the Blue Ridge. Precipitation may come down hard enough for a time to produce a thin slushy coating on the grass or elevated surfaces across portions of Southside but no significant accumulation is expected. However some slick spots are possible if any snow does manage to briefly accumulate on roadways. The precipitation will be pulling out by early this evening with a dry forecast expected thereafter. High pressure builds in behind the departing low with gusty winds expected through Wednesday morning before winds relax during the afternoon. A bit of a backdoor front will Expect a chilly night with lows generally in the 30s. However temperatures will rebound nicely on Wednesday with highs ranging from the upper 60s east of the Blue Ridge to the upper 50s.lower 60s west. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EST Tuesday... Wednesday night high pressure will be centered over the region. As we progress into Thursday, the center of this high will shift to off the southeast U.S. coast, and an upper level shortwave trough will make progress into the mid-Mississippi River Valley. An associated warm front will lift north through the area by Thursday evening. Behind this feature notably higher dew point air is expected to advect into the region, just in advance of the approaching upper system. The result will be a trend towards milder temperatures, increasing cloud cover, and rain overspreading the area Thursday night. By Friday, the axis of the upper system and an associated weak surface cold front will cross the area, trending the precipitation to scattered showers associated with this system. By Friday night, the bulk of the area is expected to be precipitation- free, with perhaps some lingering weak upslope induced showers across the southeast West Virginia mountains heading into early Saturday morning. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will be around normal Wednesday night into Thursday, but trend to reading averaging about five degrees above normal by Friday into Friday night. Confidence in this portion of the forecast is moderate to high. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1245 PM EST Tuesday... This portion of the forecast is continuing to be shaping up to be an active one. For the start of the weekend, an upper high is expected to be positioned off the southeast coast of the U.S., all while an upper trough/low develops across the Central Plains states. Both of these features will lead towards increase southwest flow across our region that will have its origins off the Gulf of Mexico. The result will be plenty of moisture advecting into our region. For Saturday, the best dynamics aloft will still be to our west nearest the developing upper trough/low. However, enough moisture and instability will across our region for some morning isolated to scattered shower, with more of these continuing into the afternoon, especially near and along the crest of the Blue Ridge. An isolated thunderstorm or two also cannot be ruled out. By Saturday evening, with the heating of the day passed, the the main system still to our west, precipitation is expected to wane to isolated showers and best during the evening. Late Saturday, additional isolated to scattered showers may return to western parts of the area in advance of the now stronger upper trough/low positioned near the mid to upper Mississippi River Valley. On Sunday, showers are expected to increase across the area as the upper trough/low heads into the Great Lakes region and its associated surface reflection makes its way toward or into the western parts of the area. Its push will be curtailed by the development of an even stronger upper low over the Central Plains states. It will be this second, and stronger, feature that will keep a decent chance of at least scattered showers in the forecast Monday into Tuesday, with the best thunderstorm potentials during the afternoon of both Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures during this portion of the forecast will average ten to fifteen degrees above normal Saturday through Monday with temperatures closer to five degrees above normal for Tuesday. Forecast confidence for this potion of the forecast is moderate. && .AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 230 PM EDT Tuesday... Low pressure moving up the coast will keep a chance of rain/snow mix with some MVFR conditions at KLYH and KDAN through the first part of the valid period before precipitation pulls out toward 00Z. Otherwise expect VFR conditions all sites through Wednesday. High pressure will build in behind the departing low and bring some gusty conditions. May see some gusts along/west of the Blue Ridge overnight, but main period of gusts will be after daybreak Wednesday once heating has mixed the boundary layer. EXTENDED AVIATION DISCUSSION... VFR flight categories will continue into at least Thursday before next weather system, and associated scattered precipitation, brings next threat for some MVFR flight restrictions Thursday night or Friday. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MBS NEAR TERM...MBS SHORT TERM...DS LONG TERM...DS AVIATION...AMS/MBS