589 FXUS63 KFGF 021737 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019 .UPDATE... Issued at 1040 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019 Adjustments made to PoP/Wx to reflect current coverage/trends. Going to continue to see isolated to scattered rain/snow showers through the day across our CWA while there may be lulls/breaks. There may have been brief mix with sleet earlier this morning with activity in eastern ND, and this also can't be ruled out. Still expect amounts to be light and snow will tend to melt on contact with roads. UPDATE Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019 Still seeing spotty echoes on radar, mainly along and ahead of the cold front dropping southward through the FA. Winds will become pretty gusty behind the front and continue that way through the day. && .SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight) Issued at 437 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019 Continue to see spotty echoes on radar across the FA, which are likely producing some sprinkles or flurries. Wind speeds have remained up, generally in the 10 to 15 mph range, which has kept temperatures in the 30 to 35 range. Still expecting a cold front to drop through the FA this morning. At the moment, it is dropping into southern Manitoba. Upstream Canadian radars also show spotty echoes, which are more likely to be snow showers, as temperatures in that region are cooler. As the front sweeps quickly through the FA this morning, expect gusty northwest winds and a continuation of the rain/snow showers along the front. Some of these showers could be fairly intense, but expect the snow to melt after it reaches the ground. By the afternoon into the evening, think there will be more convective type rain or snow showers from surface heating and cold temperatures aloft. Any lingering showers should end this evening. .LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 437 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019 High pressure builds in for Wednesday, which should bring lower winds and more sun. The upper level pattern changes Thursday trading northwest flow from a decaying Hudson Bay upper low for ridging downstream of ejecting upper troughs out of the Pacific Northwest. This will trend temperatures towards the warmer with highs starting in the 40s Thursday getting into the 50s and perhaps 60s towards the weekend, warmest in the southern Red River Valley. Adjusted the forecast to limit the amount of warming in expected remaining snowpack from the northeast and central Red River Valley into southeast ND, although lengthy warm temperatures above zero and expected precipitation will work away at remaining snowpack, significantly melting it. Precipitation chances will increase Thursday through Sunday associated with a series of ejecting shortwaves out of the Pacific Northwest. The first will come Thursday overnight in an area of WAA/isentropic lift mainly focused along and north of the international border. This is expected to bring snow transitioning to rain as warmer air advects over the region. Liquid amounts are expected to be light, generally under 0.25 inches. The next chance comes Friday overnight as a low level jet focuses an area of WAA and higher theta-e content along the SD/ND border. There is a chance for marginal amounts of elevated instability to feed into this regime bringing the chance for perhaps the season's first thunder showers. After Friday, details regarding precipitation chances become fuzzy as guidance diverges in expected outcomes, although most guidance agrees better synoptic forcing and moisture content approaches late Saturday into Sunday increasing the chance for rain. At the moment, liquid amounts over the weekend are forecast to remain light, ie under 0.5 inches, although confidence in this is low given there should be the presence of convection which could locally increase amounts. It is worth mentioning the chance for significant amounts of liquid over the weekend is quite low. A cold front is expected to move through Sunday/Monday behind exiting trough to the east which will bring temperatures back towards normal, ie lows near freezing and highs into the 40s. The progressive upper pattern currently forecast to continue, but confidence drops off in the general forecast early to mid next week. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon) Issued at 1237 PM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019 Isolated to scattered rain or snow showers continue to track from Manitoba Canada into eastern ND and northwest MN, with vis/cigs dropping to MVFR or locally lower to IFR in snow squalls. Winds have also increased as a cold front continues to drop south wind northwest gusts 25 to 37kt possible. Activity should transition east and winds should also diminish by this evening, though snow showers may continue to linger over parts of northwest MN through the night. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 437 AM CDT Tue Apr 2 2019 Snow melt and runoff continue to produce minor to moderate flooding along the Red River from Fargo to Wahpeton, the Buffalo River at Dilworth and Hawley, the South Branch of the Buffalo River at Sabin, the Goose River at Hillsboro, the Maple River at Enderlin, and Wild Rice River at Abercrombie ND. Ice jamming has been confirmed by Cass County Sheriffs Office on the Maple River near Mapleton south of I- 94 which has sent it into minor flood stage and currently rising. Other ND tributaries continue to rise in response to melting snow, with the Forest River at Minto forecast to reach minor flood stage within 48 hours. Although fields across west central Minnesota are showing plenty of soil, ditches remain filled with water and previous nights' sub- freezing temperatures are only allowing a slow drain into the Red River. Additionally, ice continues to affect portions of ND and MN tributaries, with some ice jamming already having been noted. The areal flooding affecting parts of the southern valley and west central Minnesota is now showing up over the northern and central valley, closing some county roads and prompting flood warnings and advisories for affected areas. Less of this is evident farther on the Minnesota side of the Red River north of US 2 , because of colder temperatures and, over northeast ND, low snow cover amounts. Snowmelt should still be gradual over the next 1-2 days, followed by a more rapid rate starting around Thursday lasting into the weekend as temperatures remain above freezing at night. Confidence is increasing in the chance of pcpn this weekend, however confidence in amounts remains low with less than half an inch generally expected. The chance for widespread significant liquid amounts over the weekend is low. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...DJR SHORT TERM...Godon LONG TERM...Godon/CJ AVIATION...DJR HYDROLOGY...CJ