693 FXUS61 KBGM 021705 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 105 PM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A dry air mass will dominate the region today through Thursday, with temperatures fairly close to normal values for early April after a cold start today. The next couple daytime periods will be a bit breezy, especially Wednesday. A system will pass through the region Friday to bring our next chance of precipitation. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 1100 am update... Only minor adjustments made to the very near term forecast. No significant changes made to the overall forecast. 410 AM Update... After a cold start today, generally dry conditions are expected with near normal temperatures the next couple of days. However, there are concerns in terms of fire weather, and gusty winds for Wednesday afternoon. See fire weather portion of the discussion for specifics on that. Passing high pressure with a mostly clear sky has allowed for good radiational cooling overnight, with early morning readings in the upper teens to upper 20s. The high is quickly sliding offshore, and a southerly return flow will thus get going today which will moderate temperatures. Highs will be right around climatology, in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Sunshine initially just filtered by a few high clouds, will get blocked more as the clouds thicken into this afternoon as a negatively tilted upper wave advances into the region while low pressure strengthens off the Carolina Coast. Surface low stays well offshore tonight, but the upper wave passes overhead. A brief sprinkle or flurry cannot be ruled out this evening in the Poconos-Southern Catskills, but overall there is plenty of dry air in the lower-mid levels which will keep things pretty dry with lows in the upper 20s-lower 30s. A different surface low will head from James Bay tonight into northern Quebec Wednesday, while trailing a dry cold front into the eastern Great Lakes through our region. This will significantly steepen lapse rates with cold air advection aloft in tandem with surface heating, and the deep mixing will tap into strong westerly winds aloft. The result will be stiff westerly winds increasing to 15-25 mph sustained with gusts of 35-40 mph, strongest in higher terrain and especially Central NY. If trends hold, we may end up needing Wind Advisories for a chunk of the area, with NY Thruway corridor, Finger Lakes, and Upper Susquehanna regions most vulnerable. Highs Wednesday will be in the upper 40s-upper 50s, though temperatures may begin to fall at higher elevations in the afternoon especially Central NY. A few showers could briefly skim along/north of the Thruway around midday, but a very dry air mass of Arctic origin will overspread the area through the afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... Wednesday night/Thursday...A dry period as surface high pressure over southern Ontario builds south into the area. It will be cold Wednesday night with lows ranging from the mid 20s to lower 30s. Highs on Thursday will only reach the lower to middle 40s in central New York and 45 to 50 in northeast Pennsylvania. Thursday night...A mid level wave moves into the mid Atlantic region by Friday morning as surface low pressure resides in the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Model trends has been to slow the progress of this system, both the NAM/ECMWF keep the area dry through 06Z followed by light precipitation over the southwest forecast area. Will carry chance POPs in northeast Pennsylvania and the southern tier. Precipitation type will be mixed snow/rain with the Wyoming Valley just rain. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Friday/Friday night...Models agree that surface low pressure will move through the mid Atlantic region leading to a wet day, but rainfall totals are not significant enough for any hydro concerns. Initially through mid morning the precipitation could be a snow/rain mix before changing to all rain. The system departs Friday night with much of the rain over by midnight. For the rest of the extended period medium range models indicate significant timing differences leading to a low confidence forecast. For now Saturday through Sunday looks primarily dry with high pressure in the vicinity. Next system ejecting out of the mid west may impact the region Monday into Tuesday. Will carry chance POPs through the period for rain showers. Temperatures Saturday through Monday will be on the mild side with readings running around 10 degrees above normal. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A wedge of high pressure from nrn NY into sw PA/WV with very dry air will keep weather conditions quiet and VFR conditions at all terminals through the next 24 hours. South winds 8-12 kts with gusts 15-20 kts today will weaken and back to the southeast this evening. Winds will become westerly Wednesday morning...after 14Z...with sustained winds around 15 to 20 kt and gusts 20 to 30 kt before 18Z. A few higher gusts are possible later in the afternoon. Outlook... Wednesday afternoon...VFR but with strong gusty west winds 30 to 40 kt possible in afternoon, especially KSYR- KRME. Wednesday night through Thursday night...Mainly VFR. Friday through Friday night...Restrictions likely in showers. Possibly mixed with snow early for NY terminals. Saturday and Sunday...Mainly VFR. && .FIRE WEATHER... Fire weather concerns continue to rise, especially for Wednesday when near critical fire weather conditions may occur. Finer fuels such as dead grass, leaf litter, and brush will need to be closely monitored the next couple of days as they respond to the weather. For today, minimum relative humidity will reach 25-30 percent while southerly winds become 10-15 mph with higher gusts. Clouds will pass over the region later today through tonight. However, a dry frontal passage Wednesday will significantly increase winds out of the west in afternoon, while humidity gets again down to 25-30 percent from the Twin Tiers- Catskills southward. Fire weather conditions could be around critical values for these areas. Even further north, where humidity will not be quite as low, it will still be dry with stronger winds than further south. Make sure to heed any local or state burn regulations or bans that are in effect. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening for PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...BJT/MDP SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...RRM AVIATION...BJT/MDP FIRE WEATHER...MDP