409 FXUS64 KBMX 012353 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 653 PM CDT Mon Apr 1 2019 .UPDATE... For 00Z Aviation. && .SHORT TERM... Through Tonight. A weak upper level wave is approaching the Lower Mississippi River Valley this afternoon, with mid and high level clouds now increasing across Mississippi. In response to the wave, a surface low is developing along the northern Gulf coast. The surface low will remain rather unorganized tonight as the wave crosses the area. A brief and slight increase in low level wind speeds will pull moisture back northward into southeastern portions of the Central Alabama. Scattered light rain showers are possible overnight. Further north, forcing will be slightly better under the filling upper level wave, and will also include a slight chance of showers across the far north. Given limited available moisture, most of the area will be dry overnight and only see an increase in cloud cover. Temperatures tonight will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s. 14 .LONG TERM... Tuesday through Sunday. A shortwave will continue to move to our east on Tuesday with height and pressure rises across the region. A mild and dry Tuesday afternoon will be followed by relatively cold overnight due to the presence of high pressure and light winds. Lows on Wednesday morning should range from the upper 30s North to lower 40s South. High pressure will shift eastward on Wednesday with southerly flow contributing to a warming trend and widespread lower to middle 70s in the afternoon. An upstream shortwave is expected to move from the Southern Plains toward our forecast area on Thursday. A quality warm sector will not be established as the shortwave moves across the region, and severe storms are not expected. Rain generated from warm advection in the 850-700 mb layer should spread from west to east late Thursday afternoon into Thursday night. Some embedded elevated convection is possible as well, and rain chances are quite high for Thursday night and Friday morning. A dry slot should move in behind the rain for Friday afternoon as the progressive weather pattern continues. The next shortwave may affect the forecast area as early as Saturday afternoon as deep moisture moves inland. Instability values could become supportive of strong storms on Sunday as the shortwave moves closer to the forecast area, but forecast confidence is low this far in advance. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... 00Z TAF Discussion. A few things to concentrate on within the first 12 hours. The first is the potential for some restrictive ceilings in the south and east overnight. A cold front was located well south of the area at this writing. A surface inverted trough was in the vicinity of TOI. Isentropic lift over the top of the shallow cold air will allow ceilings to advect northward near the Alabama/Georgia state line. It appears the consensus takes this moisture close to TOI and maybe northward to ANB, but appears to keep the bulk east. Therefore, will mention of Tempo for some MVFR ceilings at TOI 10-14z. Will monitor the movement/development of these clouds closely this evening. Showers will also be possible where the highest moisture resides. Made only mention of VCSH as overall chances are below 50 percent. An upper low/short wave trough will move over Central Alabama rather quickly overnight. This feature is the impetus for the lower cloud potential south. But the north is slightly different. Drier low level conditions should hold for the most of the northern terminals with VFR prevailing. Current radar depicts lots of returns to out west. There will be plenty of virga and possibly some sprinkles as this feature moves across. Ceilings should only drop into the 060-090 range. Winds will maintain an easterly component at ASN/ANB/TOI/MGM 4-6kts with the others light and variable. As the upper feature moves by overnight, winds will eventually become west to northwest at 6-7kts. 75 && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper level disturbance moves over Central Alabama overnight. This feature will provide chances of showers south and east. The remainder of the area may see light rain/sprinkles that should be barely measurable. A return to high pressure will lead to dry weather Tuesday through early Thursday. 10-hour fuel moisture still running very low, 8 percent or less, while 100-hour fuel moisture has also dipped to less than 15 percent. Winds will generally remain behaved and less than 8kts. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 39 64 39 72 45 / 20 0 0 0 0 Anniston 42 65 41 73 47 / 20 0 0 0 0 Birmingham 43 66 44 74 50 / 10 0 0 0 0 Tuscaloosa 41 67 41 74 50 / 10 0 0 0 10 Calera 41 66 41 73 49 / 10 0 0 0 0 Auburn 43 63 44 72 49 / 30 0 0 0 0 Montgomery 45 68 42 75 50 / 20 0 0 0 0 Troy 44 67 43 74 49 / 20 0 0 0 0 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/... None. && $$