186 FXUS64 KSJT 312317 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 617 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019 .AVIATION... /00Z TAFS/ VFR conditions will continue across all terminals over the next 24 hours. An upper air disturbance will aid in the development of a mid-level cloud deck across the terminals by the morning. Expected CIGs will be around around 8,000 feet. There is a window from 06z to 15z where some light precipitation may develop and impact the KSJT, KBBD and KJCT terminals. Left out any mention of -RA or VCSH in this TAF package as confidence in the coverage of the precipitation is very low. Winds will continue to be light from the northeast at less than 8 knots. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 248 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019/ SHORT TERM... (Tonight and Monday) Another cool day across West Central Texas with readings still in the 50s early this afternoon. Skies have cleared for the moment, but models all show cloud cover returning later tonight as a shortwave approaches the area. Surface high building in this evening will allow winds to drop off, and there will be a window this evening where the light winds will combine with the still clear skies and allow for a decent temperature drop. Once the clouds roll in, should see more of a slow drop for the rest of the night. Will continue the idea of lows mainly in the mid 30s tonight. Light precipitation still looks possible tonight as approaching shortwave helps produce a little mid level warm advection. Model soundings suggest that the precip aloft will form as snow, with some melting as it falls to the ground. How much melting is always a question with light precip like this falling into a dry air mass. Will keep a mention in across those areas where the precip may be a little heavier and it will be a little easier to get a little wintry mix down to the ground before it melts/and or evaporates. Decreasing clouds on Monday with quite a bit of sun for the afternoon hours. A little warmer with highs near the 60 degree mark. LONG TERM... (Monday Night through Sunday) Our area will have one more cold night Monday night, before a warmup begins in earnest Tuesday. The colder lows Monday night (mid to upper 30s) are expected across the area south and east of a Menard to Brownwood line, where winds will winds will be weakest near the receding surface high pressure ridge axis. South winds will develop across the rest of our area, and should limit overnight lows to near 40 or the lower 40s. The warmup Tuesday will be accompanied by breezy south winds, as lee surface trough develops in eastern New Mexico and surface pressure gradient increases across our area. Highs Tuesday are expected to be 70-75 degrees. Low-level moisture will return to our area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, and expect low cloud development over roughly the southern third of our area. A shortwave upper trough will move east across portions of Colorado and New Mexico, and into the central and southern Plains on Wednesday. Most of the lift with this trough will be north of our area, and the better moisture will be shunted east of our area. Carrying less than 20 PoP for a small area north of a Haskell to Fort Griffin line late Wednesday afternoon and evening. Isolated thunderstorms may be possible across this area where the dryline bulges a little farther to the east. The cap may be tough to break, however. The warming trend from Tuesday will continue Wednesday, when highs are expected to range from the mid 70s across the far southeastern part of our area, to the lower 80s across the western Big Country and western Concho Valley. Relatively quiet weather and above normal temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday, as a weak ridge aloft shifts east across Texas. A weak cold frontal passage Thursday morning should limit highs to the upper 70s north of I-20. Highs on Friday are expected to be in the lower to mid 80s across our area, when return flow develops. The 12Z GFS and ECMWF continue to have differences for next weekend, with the GFS considerably wetter. Both models have an upper trough moving east across northern Mexico, with a closed low developing over the Big Bend region. The GFS is deeper and a little slower with the approaching system, and has more widespread and higher qpf across our area. For now, going with increased cloud cover and chance PoPs (generally 30-50 percent) Friday night and Saturday, with rain chances trailing off from the west and southwest Saturday night and Sunday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 34 59 42 75 / 20 10 0 0 San Angelo 35 60 40 76 / 20 10 0 0 Junction 35 59 38 73 / 20 20 0 0 Brownwood 34 58 37 72 / 20 20 0 0 Sweetwater 35 60 42 74 / 20 10 0 0 Ozona 35 61 40 72 / 20 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ 99/99/40