499 FXUS63 KMPX 312044 AFDMPX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN 344 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019 .SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night) Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019 If you were to look at h5, with northwest flow and around 80 meter 12 hour height rises, one of the last things you would expect to see is the compact surface low over the Dakotas, with a strong WAA/FGEN band of clouds/precip out ahead if it in western MN. This precip is being driven by strong WAA/fgen at the h85 to h7 levels. This WAA/FGEN forcing is expected to continue to the north/northeast of the surface low through tonight. This low will move to Sioux Falls this evening, then across I-90 toward La Crosse tonight. This band will be weakening considerably with time, but will continue to spit out the occasional bouts of light precip as it slowly moves across the area. As for p-type, surface dewpoints are way down in the teens and 20s and the arrival of clouds has checked our temps up in the 30s, so predominate p-type today/tonight will actually be snow, but amounts will be light and nothing more than a dusting on grassy surfaces are expected. We'll remain in an active flow through the period and the next weak wave to worry about will be coming out of the Black Hills Monday afternoon. A PV anomaly will work along a remnant thermal gradient behind the surface low currently over the Dakotas to result in another narrow band of precip Monday night. There's still a bit of uncertainty with where this band sets up Monday night, with models showing it going anywhere between Mankato to the north and the US-20 corridor in Iowa to the south. We continued with the blended guidance, which kept some 40/50 pops going across southern MN Monday night. Given the time of day this one is coming through, P-type with this band will be mostly snow. Wherever this band sets up, a narrow strip of around 2" of snow will be possible. Right now, the greatest risk of some accumulating snow looks to be down in Iowa, but it won't take much of shift north to drag that snow up into the I-90 corridor. .LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 343 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019 The main story of the long term is the continued trend toward a drier forecast for this week, and a warm up on the way for the latter half of the week and especially the weekend. By Tuesday morning, increasing northwest winds behind the initial front are expected as drier air pushes into the region. Deep mixing is expected by Tuesday afternoon, which will lead to winds overachieving based on the lack of the surface pressure gradient. With cold air advection under strong northwest winds aloft, showers will be possible especially Tuesday afternoon. The Wed-Thu system for the center of the country continues trending south of our area. With the strong upper trough over the Great Lakes region and the high pressure sinking in across the Upper Midwest, the southern solution as advertised by the ECMWF for the last several runs. So, continued the downward trend of the PoPs, limiting to some slight chance pops along I-90, otherwise keeping the remainder of the area dry. The transition to a warmer pattern really begins on Thursday as southerly winds develop on the backside of the aforementioned high, and upper ridging builds in from the west. With the warming trend, a passing wave to our north could bring light precip through central MN. The weekend continues to look warm, with temepratures in the 60s becoming increasingly likely. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon) Issued at 114 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019 Precip associated with low level forcing out ahead of a Dakotas sfc low has been a bit stronger than anticipated. Looks like we should see a band of ra/sn work down from AXN toward Red Wing this afternoon, with AXN/STC/MSP having the greatest risk for seeing some occasional precip. CIGs will remain VFR, though if p-type comes in as -SN, it will be associated with 2-4sm VIS. This sfc low will head to Sioux Falls this evening, then spend the morning Monday traversing I-90 in southern MN. This will result in light and variable winds for much of tonight and Monday morning as it will be getting absorbed by an incoming high in the process. KMSP...It's looking increasingly likely MSP will see some precip this period. From the RAP, forcing looks best between 22z and 6z. Given clouds, we may not warm much out of the mid 30s, so RA/SN would be the p-type. /OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/ Mon...VFR. Winds WNW 5-10 kts. Tue...VFR. Winds WNW 15g25 kts. Wed...VFR. Winds N 5 kts. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WI...None. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...MPG LONG TERM...SPD AVIATION...MPG