176 FXUS64 KMEG 311931 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 231 PM CDT Sun Mar 31 2019 .DISCUSSION... Dry and nearly cold outside this afternoon according to Midsouth standards. A few locations have reached the lows 50's south of I-40. Breezy north winds are keeping windchills in the low 40s. For tonight...subfreezing dewpoints and diminishing northeast winds will allow for temperatures to bottom out to potentially the mid 20s across portions of west Tennessee...with most locations falling to near 30F. Current cirrus clouds are expected to gradually thin after sunset so they will provide nearly no help in trapping outgoing heat. The record low in Jackson is 30F and 31F in Tupelo...they could easily be broken tonight. No changes in the current Freeze Warning is expected. Monday through next weekend...models are in good agreement that the Midsouth will remain influenced by the southern branch of the jet stream for the next several days...with three distinct shortwave troughs passing overhead. The first tomorrow night will bring increasing high and midlevel moisture to the area...with perhaps a few light sprinkles over the southern counties between 4pm and midnight. Afterwhich clouds will exit the area. Due to the faster timing have lowered both highs tomorrow and lows tomorrow night a couple of degrees. Tuesday...and a majority of Wednesday the area will be in between troughs. On the surface high pressure will slide east providing a southerly low level flow and warming temperatures. Most locations will see 60s for highs Tuesday with seasonal highs near 70F on Wednesday...despite clouds spilling in from the west. Influences from the second trough will arrive Wednesday night with the brunt of the rain falling Thursday. Embedded T-storms are likely with rainfall amounts around a half inch. The severe weather threat will again be tough to materialize. Not only will the region be stable from clouds and steadier rainfall...the supporting shortwave will be filling as it crosses the Ozarks. So for now the Day5 SPC 15% outlook reaching our southwest counties is a stretch. Will add only a threat for a few strong storms in the HWO. Rain chances will diminish west to east early Friday. Late Friday and Saturday appear dry again before the third wave arrives Sunday. Temperatures next weekend will be warmer with highs ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s. The threat for more storms will move into the western counties Sunday afternoon and spread east through the night. This third shortwave is depicted by both the GFS and Euro to be much deeper...with a slight negative orientation as ti slides over the Lower Mississippi Valley. If that holds true throughout the week it would lead to a more significant threat for severe weather across the region. JAB && .AVIATION... 18Z TAF cycle VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period. Winds will be from the north at 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts this afternoon before diminishing to around 5 knots tonight. Winds will become northeasterly at 5 to 10 knots Monday morning. ARS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for Clay-Craighead- Crittenden-Cross-Greene-Lee AR-Mississippi-Phillips- Poinsett-St. Francis. MO...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for Dunklin-Pemiscot. MS...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for Alcorn-Benton MS- Calhoun-Chickasaw-Coahoma-DeSoto-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lee MS- Marshall-Monroe-Panola-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman- Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Yalobusha. TN...Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM CDT Monday for Benton TN- Carroll-Chester-Crockett-Decatur-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson- Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-Henderson-Henry-Lake-Lauderdale- Madison-McNairy-Obion-Shelby-Tipton-Weakley. && $$